The Purdue Boilermakers sit atop the AP and Coaches Poll with a 4-0 start to the season. They will face a Memphis Tigers team that has struggled a bit out of the gates with a 1-2 record in a Thursday night matchup.
Looking at the odds, Purdue enters as a 14.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 159.5 points.
Purdue vs. Memphis prediction, preview
Purdue looks the part of a National Championship threat as indicated by its third-best odds at +1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Its most notable victory came over Alabama last Thursday by a score of 87-80, with the three other wins coming against Akron, Evansville and Oakland. However, the Boilermakers are just 1-3 against the spread, with this lone cover coming against Alabama. They have taken care of business from a results standpoint with the games not holding much doubt, but they have failed to cover the 30+-point spread against Evansville and Oakland and fell just short of the 18.5-point spread against Akron, which they won by 18.
Matt Painter’s group is averaging 88.3 points per game, which ranks 225th, and has the 25th-best three-point percentage at 40.7% collectively. Opponents are scoring the 161st-best rate against them at 71.8 points per contest. Purdue has done a solid job controlling the glass, ranking 45th in rebounds per game, and does an excellent job taking care of the basketball. It ranks 20th in assists and 13th in turnovers per game. The Boilermakers also foul at the fifth-fewest rate, ranking third in free-throw attempts allowed. But they have given up the 12th-most three-point attempts per game across D1 programs.
This is an experienced group with 69.6% of their minutes played and 79.6% of their scoring production returning from last year. Trey Kaufman-Renn missed the first two games of the season due to a hip injury, but he leads the team with 18.5 points and 15.0 rebounds per game across the pair of matchups he has played. Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith each add 17.0+ points per game and are shooting 40.0% from beyond the three-point line. Oscar Cluff also plays an important role, controlling the interior with 11.5 points and 11.0 rebounds per game.
It has not been as promising a start to the year for Memphis, which enters with a 1-2 record. It opened the season with a 76-70 victory over San Francisco, but dropped back-to-back games at the hands of Ole Miss and UNLV. It is, however, 2-1 against the spread, covering in its victory over San Francisco and in the six-point loss to Ole Miss.
Led by head coach Penny Hardaway, the Tigers are scoring 77.0 points per game. This ranks 225th among D1 programs, with most of their damage done inside the arc. Their biggest issues have come defensively, with opponents scoring 81.7 points per game, which ranks 309th. UNLV most recently scored 92 points against them. Opponents are shooting 55.4% from the field and 35.7% from beyond the three-point arc, which each rank in the bottom third of D1 programs. There is not a single returning player from last year’s roster.
Sincere Parker is the team’s leading scorer at 11.3 points per game to go along with 3.7 rebounds and shooting 40.0% on three-point attempts. He has, however, shot just 4-for-9 at the free-throw line to start the year. Curtis Givens III and Dug McDaniel each add 10.7 points per game, while Ashton Hardaway and Quante Berry averaged over nine points per contest. Berry is considered questionable with a finger issue, while Western Kentucky transfer Julius Thedford will miss with a knee issue after emerging as an impact player.
Purdue vs. Memphis pick, best bet
Purdue is the better team and should not have a problem getting the victory in this matchup. While 14.5 is a notable spread, it is much easier to swallow than the significant numbers it has struggled to clear to this point.
Diving into the matchups, it is difficult to find a basketball advantage that points to Memphis. Purdue is an experienced group that knows its identity and how to play together. The same cannot be said about Memphis. While the level of fight it has shown out of the gates is admirable, this is a completely new unit that is still learning how to play with each other. It is coming off a 14-point loss to UNLV, which marks the worst home loss during Hardaway’s tenure.
While Memphis should not be expected to roll over, the level of fight will not make up for the gap in talent. It will need some careless basketball or hot shooting to go its direction to have a chance. The Boilermakers take as good care of the ball as anyone, and Memphis lacks the shooters for this to be the case.
Purdue is still looking to add some significant wins to its resume, and this is a prime chance to do just this. Expect Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer to dominate the guard matchups and for Purdue to have the advantage in the rebounding battle throughout. My lean is toward the over for the game, but I feel most confident in Purdue turning this into a rout and covering the 14.5-point spread. This game could get ugly early, and expect the Boilermakers to continue proving why they are the top team in the country for the time being.
