The Houston Texans have had to play through a lot of adversity this season. After a brutal start to the season, they’ve played their way back into wild-card contention, only to see their starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud, suffer a particularly nasty concussion. Sitting at 3-5, most assumed their season was over, but backup QB Davis Mills has led them to consecutive victories in the division. Now he faces his biggest challenge: the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills enter as six-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Texans are listed as +235 underdogs. The game’s total is set at 43.5 points. Here is my top Davis Mills player prop for Thursday’s matchup between the Bills and Texans.
Best Davis Mills Player Prop Bets
Not only are the Texans winning with Mills at the helm, but he’s playing competently. Through 2.5 games (Stroud missed most of the Denver game), Mills is throwing for 234 yards per game and completing 60% of his passes with three touchdowns to one pick. With how elite Houston’s defense is, average play under center has been enough.
This Bills team will be a significant test. Buffalo has elite secondary stats; they rank second in total pass yards allowed, eighth in yards per attempt allowed, and fifth in touchdowns allowed. That poses issues for an offense that has struggled this year.
However, the Buffalo run defense doesn’t have the same juice. They’re bottom two in total rushing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed per attempt, and rushing touchdowns allowed. It’s a fatal flaw that could undo their hopes of contention. And it’s a flaw that Davis Mills and the Texans are waiting to exploit.
Finding the value here is tough. But I’m looking at Mills’ rushing line for a play. In his three games with significant playing time this season, Mills has scrambled for 10+ yards in all three. Facing the worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect him to make it 4/4.
