The Patriots roll into Cincinnati this weekend with an eight-game winning streak and one of the hottest running backs in the NFL. They’re coming into a smash spot against the defense that has been the best matchup for running backs all season, so TreVeyon Henderson seems like a no-brainer, must-start option. Hold on, though, because that might just be Rhamondre Stevenson’s entry music you hear. If the veteran returns from his injury, which one of the two Patriots RBs will be the better play this week?
In this post, we’ll dive into the Patriots backfield rotation and see what to expect in the coming weeks and how to best attack the situation from a fantasy football perspective.
TreVeyon Henderson Truly Broke Out
With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined for the last three weeks, Henderson finally got the majority of touches in the backfield which some fans and fantasy managers had been calling for all season. The second-round rookie from Ohio State showed positive signs with 55 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards against the Falcons in Week 9. Even though he didn’t get into the end zone, he posted a personal-best 12.7 fantasy points at that point.
In Week 10 and Week 11, he blew that personal best away with 31 fantasy points against the Bucs and then 32.3 fantasy points against the Jets. Against Tampa, he took his 14 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns and caught his only target for three yards. Against New York, he took a career-high 19 carries for 62 yards and added five catches on five targets for 31 yards. He had three total touchdowns, two rushing and this one receiving to cap his huge game:
Henderson definitely has established himself as a two-way threat with big-play potential and a high ceiling. He has proven he can carry the workload and put up huge games when provided the opportunity. The question is if he’ll regularly get that opportunity moving forward if Stevenson returns.
The return of Rhamondre?
Stevenson is expected to practice Wednesday, which would likely put him on track to return to action this week against the Bengals if he responds well to the work. He will almost certainly eat into Henderson’s workload, and his upside, when he’s back, especially with how loyal the coaching staff has been to him.
When Stevenson was healthy for the first eight weeks of the season, he played 62% of the snaps and got 15 to 18 touches per game. Most of his work was between the tackles, and even if his totals weren’t great, he set up a lot of effective play action and worked very efficiently near the goal line.
While Henderson brings a lot more lightning and excitement with big plays and runs to the outside, Stevenson usually brings the thunder of power running between the tackles.
In Week 8 against the Browns, both backs were effective in their roles with Henderson taking 10 carries for 75 yards, and Stevenson taking 14 carries for 34 yards. That’s an idea of how the team could look to incorporate both backs into the gameplan, although obviously, they’d want more yardage from Stevenson’s runs, which were mostly concentrated up the middle.
The Bottom Line
It’s a great matchup this week, and both Patriots running backs have high ceilings in this offense which is firing on all cylinders under second-year QB Drake Maye and his new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Bengals have given up 15 running back touchdowns in 10 games this season, allowing an average of 137.1 rushing yards and 48.5 receiving yards per game to the position.
In standard-sized season-long leagues, Henderson is an RB2 with undeniable RB1 upside even if Stevenson is active. Stevenson would be a strong flex play with RB2 upside as well. The presence of the other RB does raise the risk for both options, but in this matchup, it’ something they can overcome.
In one-week fantasy contests on DraftKings like the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], Stevenson is a bargain play at barely over $5,000 and brings great value potential. Henderson is a more expensive option at $6,700, but after he posted 31 and 32.3 fantasy points the last two weeks, he definitely has the potential to go off again. His high ceiling makes him a GPP option in this matchup.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Patriots have more great matchups on the horizon around their Week 14 bye week. In Week 13, they take on the Giants, and in Week 15, they play the Bills, both of which are top-five RB matchups. They face the Ravens in Week 16 before a rematch with the Jets in Week 17, when most fantasy leagues have their championships. Both backs should be owned in almost all season-long formats since they’ll be very startable in most of those matchups in the expected timeshare. It will be frustrating for Henderson owners to not get the volume he’s had the last few weeks, but he still brings plenty of upside to be a must-start play in most formats.
