The Chiefs host the Colts in one of the most exciting games on Sunday’s early slate, and it looks like the Chiefs might get starting running back Isiah Pacheco back in the mix after his multiple-week absence. Pacheco’s possible return would bring back the timeshare between him and Kareem Hunt, which definitely impacts the fantasy value of both options.
How could the team split up the workload between Pacheco and Hunt if Pacheco returns? What fantasy value would each have in this contest if that’s the way it plays out? Let’s take a look at the numbers and see what to expect this Sunday in the Chiefs’ backfield.
The Return of Detective Pacheco?
Isiah Pacheco has been sidelined for the Chiefs’ last two games, both road losses on both sides of the team’s bye week. Pacheco had been starting to take on a clearer role as the team’s lead back.
In Week 6, he played a season-high 77% of snaps when the Chiefs got their big win over the Lions. He had 12 carries for 51 yards and a three-yard reception. The following week, he played 56% of snaps in a Week 7 rout of the Raiders, earning 12.4 fantasy points for his second-highest total of the season. He looked even better in Week 8, racking up a season-high 58 rushing yards on 12 carries before leaving with his knee injury. He played 58% of the snaps but was on track for a higher percentage before his early departure.
Pacheco hasn’t been heavily involved as a pass-catcher this season, with just 10 catches in eight games for 43 receiving yards, but one of his two touchdowns did come as a receiving score.
His knee injury was diagnosed as a sprained MCL, but he was able to return to practice as the team started preparations for Sunday’s game against the Colts.
He could be eased back into action, but at least before the injury, he seemed like the best overall option in Kansas City’s backfield.
Kareem Hunting for a specialized role
Hunt has played 78% and 80% of the snaps in the two games that Pacheco missed. He carried almost all the workload with Brashard Smith getting 12 snaps in each of the two games and Elijah Mitchell getting seven plays against the Broncos last week.
Hunt doesn’t offer a ton of sizzle or big-play ability, but he was able to grind out tough yards. He had 11 carries for 49 yards against the Bills and 13 carries for 59 yards against the Chiefs, finding the end zone in both contests. He has been effective in short-yardage situations for most of the season whether in a primary or complementary role. Furthermore, he has found the end zone in three straight games as a result and has seven touchdowns on the season, which is in stark contrast to Pacheco’s two scores.
The Bottom Line
The Chiefs are 5-5 and need all the playmakers they can get on their offense, so getting Pacheco back in the mix this week would be a good thing for the team. It wouldn’t be a good thing for Hunt’s fantasy value, though, since Pacheco would likely get most of the work either this week or as soon as he’s ramped back up.
For season-long leagues, Hunt would go from a solid flex to a more touchdown-dependent flex option since he would mostly be in just short-yardage situations. Pacheco was barely flex worthy before the injury, so there’s no need to rush to get him back into your flex spots right after he returns. He’ll need to re-establish himself before he’s worth a look, and he will really only be a strong start if he gets all the work back from Hunt, which doesn’t seem likely at this point.
In one-week fantasy contests on DraftKings like the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], Hunt’s salary is $5,100 and Pacheco’s is $5,000. Either one would be a good value if they find the end zone against Indy, but since the Colts have only allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, it doesn’t seem like a certainty that one will. Hunt seems like the better play of the two options since he’s been getting more goal line work, but his ceiling is lowered by Pacheco’s potential return.
