The Buffalo Bills looked like they were going to gallop through and around the entire NFL after four straight wins to open the season. But three of those wins came against the New York Jets, Miami and New Orleans. New England and Atlanta exposed Buffalo in weeks five and six, limiting Buffalo to 20 and 14 points en route to two losses. After the bye, dominance was re-established with two more wins, one against Kansas City, but a Week 10 loss to Miami confounded. Last week, Buffalo bounced back with a 44-32 win over Tampa Bay.
Buffalo is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but they can also lose on any given Sunday, Monday or Thursday.
Josh Allen is a snow-covered Atlas, tugging the Bills wagon to victory after victory. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The EPA per dropback is the second-best in the league, only behind New England. Allen has also rushed 65 times for 351 yards and 10 touchdowns. James Cook has carried 182 times for 968 yards and seven touchdowns. The duo has helped Buffalo post the third-best EPA per carry.
The strength of the Bills’ defense is against the pass, as the unit is posting the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback. Only 10 passing touchdowns have been thrown against them while the unit has racked up seven interceptions and 27 sacks.
The rush defense, though. Oh, that rush defense. Buffalo is allowing 5.4 yards per carry, the second-highest mark in the league, and the 17 touchdowns allowed are the most. The EPA per carry is the fourth-highest.
Houston has problems but defense ain’t one. The pass defense is one of, if not the best in the league. The unit has posted the lowest EPA per dropback while allowing a league-low 57.6% completion percentage. Only 10 touchdowns have been allowed while the unit has racked up 10 interceptions and 25 sacks. The rush defense has allowed only 3.9 yards per carry and eight touchdowns. The EPA per carry is 10th-best. Only three teams have scored at least 20 points against Houston.
The offense, or lack of, has been the primary bugaboo for Houston. The EPA per carry is 11th-lowest. The EPA per dropback is 13th-best, but the 14 touchdowns thrown are tied for the sixth-fewest. The offensive line has had difficulty opening up holes and protecting the quarterback. C.J. Stroud has missed the last two and a half games and has already been ruled out for this one, which means Davis Mills will get his third consecutive start.
Mills has helped Houston win the last two contests, but those were against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Things will be much more difficult against Buffalo. On the season, Mills is completing 60% of his passes and has thrown for 726 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Buffalo favored by 6 points on the road with the total set at 43.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF @ HOU)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($18,600 CP): It’s very difficult not to go with Allen here, as the floor/ceiling combo is just so high due to his dual-threat ability. He’s rushed for 351 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. He has two games over 40 FPTS and he’s failed to produce at least 20 FPTS only twice. Houston has one of the best defenses, so I’m not expecting a ceiling outcome, but Allen still has a good chance of putting up the most points on the slate.
UTIL Plays
Woody Marks ($9,200): Marks has dominated the snaps at running back for the Texans over the last two weeks. He’s also received eight red zone opportunities while Nick Chubb has not received any over that span. The weakness of the Bills is the rush defense, so I expect Houston to ground-and-pound as long as they can. With how stout the Texans defense is, Marks could be heavily involved all night long.
Nico Collins ($11,200): The price is expensive, which makes roster construction difficult. And the strength of the Bills defense is defending the pass. That said, I cannot overlook the 11, 16 and 10 targets Mills has peppered Collins with over the last three games, including a total of eight red zone looks.
Nick Chubb ($3,200): I’m not expecting much from Chubb, especially since Marks is garnering the majority of the snaps. That said, he is still getting a few opportunities per game, both on the ground and through the air. With a porous Bills run defense and a Houston defense that could keep the game close, there’s a chance Chubb does enough to pay off the salary.
Fades
Khalil Shakir ($8,000): Five receivers got at least 40% of the snaps last week, with four of those around 50%. Sure, Shakir does lead the wide receiver group with 61 targets on the season, but most are of the low aDOT variety and last week, he was tied for third with three targets while Joshua Palmer and Tyrell Shavers garnered five targets each. He’s just too expensive for the role and volume.
THE OUTCOME
I think this is a low-scoring affair, one in which it wouldn’t surprise me if Houston pulls off the upset. Two of the three losses for Buffalo came on the road and the Bills scored 13 and 14 points in those contests. The Houston defense could potentially do the same.
Final Score: Bills 17, Texans 20
