A jam-packed slate of nine NBA games is set to get underway on Wednesday night, featuring plenty of stars taking the court across the league. Before you place any bets, here is one parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which can be adjusted to account for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all five legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Timberwolves F Jaden McDaniels
Pick: Jaden McDaniels O 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-109)
McDaniels enters Wednesday’s showdown with the Wizards averaging 24.4 points + rebounds + assists per game on the season. He has cleared 21.5 PRA in 10 of his 14 games this season, good for a winning percentage of 71%. The 25-year-old has an 80% winning percentage over his last five games, as well, so he is trending in the right direction in that category.
The last two times McDaniels failed to hit the over on 21.5 PRA, he was going against opponents with F and C season matchup grades versus forwards. Luckily for McDaniels, the Wizards boast an A. The last time McDaniels had a matchup that favorable was against the Nets on November 3, when he went for 28 PRA – 22 points, three rebounds and three assists.
Nuggets F Cameron Johnson
Pick: Cameron Johnson U 12.5 points (-128)
Johnson and the Nuggets are set to face off with the Pelicans on Wednesday night. New Orleans, for all their struggles this season, have an F season matchup grade when it comes to opposing forwards’ scoring output.
While Johnson scored 19 points his last time out, that came against an A+ matchup in the Bulls. On the whole this season, taking the under on Johnson at 12.5 points carries an 83% winning percentage. He is averaging 8.2 points per game on the year and 7.6 over his last five.
It is also worth noting that Johnson’s recent 19-point showing came after he missed Denver’s previous contest, giving him four days of rest between action. He is on two days’ rest this time around, and he will be on the road instead of at home. If he doesn’t log 37 minutes again on Wednesday, Johnson probably won’t have as much time to get rolling offensively, either.
Thunder G Isaiah Joe
Pick: Isaiah Joe O 13.5 points (-105)
Heading into Wednesday’s matchup between the Thunder and Kings, Joe is averaging 14.7 points per game. Across the 10 games he has appeared in this season, Joe hitting the over on 13.5 points carries a 70% winning percentage. Add in the fact that DraftKings has Sacramento graded as an A+ opponent for guards’ scoring abilities, and Joe points are a very attractive addition to any parlay.
Joe’s two most recent failures, in terms of clearing 12.5 points in a game, came against the Grizzlies and Hornets. The former posed a D+ matchup rating and held Joe to eight points, while the latter presented a D-graded matchup to shooting guards and limited him to three. Joe finished with 13 points against the Pelicans – who constituted an A+ matchup themselves – on November 2, but that was still only a few days removed from the 26-year-old’s delayed season debut.
Knicks C Mitchell Robinson
Pick: Mitchell Robinson O 7.5 rebounds (-137)
Robinson is averaging 9.0 rebounds per game so far this season. At the game-to-game level, he has notched over 7.5 rebounds in 86% of his appearances, including 100% of his last five contests.
Going against the Mavericks should only lead to more confidence in Robinson’s ability to dominate on the boards. According to DraftKings, Dallas carries an A season matchup grade in this category. Robinson is fresh off recording 11 and 10 rebounds in his last two games against the Heat, who presented a C+ matchup. Robinson hasn’t even faced a team with a season matchup grade better than a B this year, so he really could feast against a Mavs squad that is without Anthony Davis and managing injuries to both Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford.
Mavericks G Max Christie
Pick: Max Christie O 1.5 three-pointers (-147)
On the other side of Knicks-Mavericks, look for Christie to sink a couple of long-balls. New York presents an A season matchup grade for the 22-year-old on the 3-pointers made market, after all.
Christie is averaging 2.5 triples per game on the whole this year, boasting a 80% winning percentage on the season in terms of clearing 1.5. He didn’t hit a 3-pointer last time out against the Timberwolves, but they have a C- season matchup grade. Christie also didn’t even attempt a 3 that night, marking a significant outlier considering he was averaging 5.9 per game before that. Going against the OG Anunoby-less Knicks, that kind of approach seems unlikely to crop up again.
