The Mavericks are hosting the Knicks on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 7.5 points, with the point total set to 230.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Knicks preview, prediction
After controversially trading away Luka Dončić last season, the Mavericks ironically won the NBA lottery and drafted the highly-touted Cooper Flagg with the first overall pick. Even with Kyrie Irving (knee) out, Dallas looked like a borderline play-in team with Flagg and Anthony Davis at the helm, but things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for the Mavericks this season, as they sit at 4-11 and rank 24th in net rating.
Davis has only played in five games due to a calf injury, and the big man has no timetable for a return. Meanwhile, Flagg is averaging 15.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 33.7 minutes per game, but the rookie ranks dead last in plus/minus for Dallas and the team has been significantly better on both ends of the floor with Flagg off the court. With the Duke product off the floor, the Mavericks own a strong 7.9 net rating, while they are an ugly minus-12.4 with him on.
Flagg is questionable to play tonight while dealing with an illness. The 18-year-old missed shoot-around, so he is trending towards missing his first game of the season, which unfortunately might be a positive development for Dallas given the rookie’s struggles. If Flagg sits as expected, Brandon Williams, D’Angelo Russell and Naji Marshall will all see expanded roles. Injury news is more positive elsewhere on the roster: both Daniel Gafford (ankle) and Dereck Lively II (knee) are probable, so the Mavericks will have both of their centers available. They’ll need a strong center rotation in order to keep Knicks star Karl-Anthony Towns at bay.
After making it to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, New York is 8-5 and ranks fifth in net rating this season. OG Anunoby — the Knicks’ leader in plus-minus this season — is out with a hamstring strain, but Jalen Brunson (ankle) appears to be ready to make his return after missing two in a row. The guard is listed as questionable, but he participated in shoot-around this morning. Brunson is averaging a career-high 28.0 PPG this season and ranks second in plus/minus for New York, so his return would obviously be big for the Knicks.
While New York is off to a great start this season, the team has done most of its damage at home in Madison Square Garden, with an 8-1 record at the famous arena. Conversely, the Knicks have struggled mightily on the road, posting an 0-4 record and the 10th-worst net rating outside the Big Apple. Even with its captain back, New York shouldn’t necessarily be expected to romp its way to victory Dallas tonight.
Mavericks vs. Knicks pick, best bet
While Brunson looks likely to play, Anunoby being out and the Knicks’ road woes are real concerns.
New York is a much better team than Dallas and the Knicks should be able to notch their first road win of the season, but covering the 7.5-point spread should be a challenge for this New York team that is 0-4 ATS on the road. As a result, backing the Mavericks to cover is smart.
