Bright spots are few and far between for the New York Jets amidst a miserable 2-8 campaign. Running back Breece Hall remains one of very few positives for the organization, but even then, he’s been a frustrating talent to roster in fantasy football. In Week 12, veteran Tyrod Taylor takes over under center as the starting quarterback in the Big Apple — is it possible the shakeup benefits Hall’s value and upside for fantasy?
Analysis
Breece Hall’s fantasy football value has never been a question of talent by any means. He averaged at least 15.1 FPPG in PPR formats over his first three NFL seasons, crossing 1,000 scrimmage yards with at least eight touchdowns in his two campaigns which weren’t shortened due to injury. With a 5-foot-11, 217-pound frame, near-elite quickness and breakaway speed He also remains one of the top pass-catching halfbacks in the league with soft hands out of the backfield and the ability to line up elsewhere as a receiver as well. As the total package, one would assume Hall’s numbers this season are great, right?
The fact of the matter is that his production hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. He’s the PPR RB14 on the campaign and has posted some quality weeks of 16.5, 16.1, 17.5, 32.9 and 19.5 fantasy points. However, the floor is much lower with outings of 5.8, 9.2, 5.9, 7.2 and 8.4 points across his other games. Is he a player you can count on each and every week? Not exactly, which is quite underwhelming for his caliber of talent.
Still, it’s not entirely Hall’s fault that his fantasy production remains inconsistent. The rather poor play of Justin Fields under center led to a rather anemic offense that averaged just 20.9 points per game and lacked much of a real passing threat defenses had to plan for. That meant more stacked boxes against Hall, especially with Garrett Wilson (knee) spending much of the campaign sidelined. Plus, Fields was a threat to vulture rushing touchdowns in the red zone with four scores via the ground. Hall didn’t find the end zone himself until Week 8, and the halfback still has just three TDs on the campaign.
While Wilson won’t return for another couple of weeks, Tyrod Taylor does provide a more steady veteran presence under center, at least in theory. If he can hit some of the layup throws Fields frequently missed, there’s a chance this offense could string together more consistent drives downfield. Plus, Taylor isn’t much of a threat to run the football, so Hall could be relied upon more in the red zone and close to the goal line.
Granted, expecting a major rebound for the Jets is entirely unrealistic since the team is largely devoid of much high-end talent, especially with Wilson sidelined. However, New York already leans on the run game and Hall will likely see additional checkdowns since Taylor isn’t anywhere near the rushing threat Fields is, so a bit of a boost to the halfback’s fantasy outlook feels within reach. Over the next few weeks leading up to the first round of playoffs in Week 15, the Jets have a strength of schedule ranked 11th-best for running backs as well (per DraftSharks). Hall is a player you can trust as an RB2 if he sees a little more involvement as a receiver alongside Taylor, but depending on him for anything more is a shaky proposition.
