While the Cowboys and Raiders aren’t exactly having the type of seasons they were hoping for in 2025, it’s still an event when two historic franchises meet on MNF. Both teams have had time to prep for this one, with the Raiders last taking the Broncos down to the wire on TNF last week, and the Cowboys weirdly playing back-to-back MNF games with a bye in-between them.
I think the players will be up for this game, and I’ve gone through a few betting angles that interest me in this one. I lean to the Dallas side of the game, and like any indoor Cowboys game, think we should see some points on the board. But, ultimately, I wound up on the Raiders’ side of the game for a player prop.
It’s been an inconsistent rookie season for Ashton Jeanty, but this sets up as a nice spot for a breakout game against the Cowboys on MNF. Jeanty has been held to 60 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, but those were matchups against the Chiefs, Jaguars and Broncos — all of which rank in the top-10 in the NFL against the run. Each of those teams allows 76 or less yards per game to the running back position as a unit.
Prior to the difficult matchups over his last three, Jeanty had been exploiting positive matchups. He rushed for 63-plus yards in each of his last four games, averaging over 85 yards per game on the ground in those outings — with the best matchup coming against Washington (which ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed).
Monday night’s matchup represents arguably Jeanty’s best matchup of the season. The Cowboys now rank 29th against the run, giving up 143 rushing yards per game. That number jumps to nearly 157 rushing yards allowed in road games. Jeanty managed to turn 19 carries into 60 rushing yards and a touchdown last week against a Denver defense allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs (not to mention he had a huge run called back).
The Cowboys are surrendering 4.89 yards per carry to the RB position. Jeanty’s rushing attempts prop is marketed at 17.5 carries, and if he gets anywhere in the neighborhood of that number tonight, I expect him to well exceed his rushing yards total. Jeanty O62.5 rushing yards is worth a play, and playing some alternate overs should also be in play.
NFL Player Prop: Ashton Jeanty OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
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