On Monday night, the defending NBA champs head to New Orleans for a date against a struggling Pelicans squad in the midst of change. With the Pels having fired their head coach last week, the Oklahoma City Thunder smell blood in the water. Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his teammates take advantage and stack another W in the win column tonight?
Here’s a Thunder vs. Pelicans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s matchup.
Thunder vs. Pelicans prediction, preview
Oklahoma City Thunder
Unsurprisingly, the Thunder are still rolling over the rest of the NBA a month into the 2025-26 campaign. At 13-1, Oklahoma City has won five straight games and nine of its last 10, showing just how dominant this team is even with Jalen Williams still sidelined as he recovers from wrist surgery. This unit doesn’t just beat opponents, instead they dominate them with a league-best 15.4 NETRTG with an identical average scoring margin, also tops in the Association. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32.6 PPG and 6.6 AST power the Thunder nightly, but Chet Holmgren averages 19.3 PPG with 8.2 REB alongside frontcourt mate Isaiah Hartenstein’s 12.7 points and 11.2 boards. The role players have excelled here as well with Ajay Mitchell posting 16.7 PPG with a handful of rebounds and assists, while Isaiah Joe is also in the double-figures. While Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso are out tonight, their absence likely won’t matter — a dominant force at both ends, Oklahoma City also falls 25th in the NBA in pace and 13th in TS%.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are essentially polar opposites of tonight’s opponent at 2-11 while riding a five-game losing streak. In the wake of the poor start, the organization fired Willie Green and named former Hornets head coach James Borrego the interim in his place. The change in leadership may not change the outlook for this team, though. New Orleans falls 28th in NETRTG at -13.1 as well as average scoring margin at -13.3. Zion Williamson is questionable to return from his hamstring strain after missing seven straight games, and his presence would provide a major boost with a team-best 22.8 PPG. If he doesn’t play though, this rotation will feel quite shorthanded with Jordan Poole ruled out. That leaves Trey Murphy (19.8 PPG, 6.9 REB), Jeremiah Fears (14.6 PPG), and Saddiq Bey (12.4 PPG) as the three leading scorers, complemented by Derik Queen and Herb Jones. New Orleans also sits 26th in PACE and 29th in TS%.
Thunder vs. Pelicans pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds aren’t even close between these two sides. There’s a Grand Canyon-sized gap with the Thunder favored by 17.5 points at -1800 on the Moneyline. The Pelicans are listed at +1000 to win outright with a game total of 225.5 points.
Yes, this probably won’t be a very good game, especially if Williamson isn’t able to make his return just yet. Bettors should fully expect an ugly one, and while Oklahoma City may very well cover at -17.5, that’s a big line to trust here. A team total for the visitors makes much more sense with the Thunder averaging the fifth-most points in the league at 121.6 in a matchup against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Pelicans allow 121.5 PPG, which ranks 23rd among all teams, and they also possess the third-worst DEFRTG at 120.7. With OKC generally blowing teams out of the water and scoring 137 points in the previous matchup against NOLA, I’m quite comfortable snagging over 122.5 points for the Thunder at -105 odds.
Top pick: OKC Thunder over 122.5 team total (-105)
