Week 11 of the NFL season will conclude with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders.
Neither of these teams holds the outlook they desire at this stage of the season. The Cowboys enter the season with a 3-5-1 record, plagued by defensive issues that have prevented them from achieving their desired results. In contrast, Geno Smith has not filled the desired level of quarterback play for the Raiders, who are 2-7 on the season.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Cowboys enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -192 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Raiders hold +160 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 50.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Raiders.
Cowboys at Raiders Best Prop Bets
Tyler Lockett Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
It was a tough start to the season for Tyler Lockett. He suited up for the first seven games of the season with the Tennessee Titans, pulling in just 10 total receptions and hardly seeing the field. The two sides elected to separate in late October, and Lockett landed with the Raiders, where he has provided a necessary boost to their passing attack.
Lockett played just 19 offensive snaps in his first game in Las Vegas and was targeted only once. Then, last week, he was second on the team with 26 routes run on 34 drop-backs, or playing 76.5% of the offensive snaps. The 33-year-old pulled in five of his six targets for 44 yards. This marked his best performance of the season. It is also worth noting that this took place against the Denver Broncos, who are one of the better defensive units in the league. Denver currently allows the fewest net yards per pass attempt and is fifth in passing yards allowed.
This will not remotely be the case against a Cowboys’ defense that has not been able to get stops all season. Dallas ranks 31st in points and yards allowed, as well as 30th in passing yards conceded and 30th in net yards per pass attempt. Lockett is not the player he once was, but he has four 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a Pro Bowl appearance on his resume. It was encouraging to see how involved he was in the Raiders’ offensive attack last week, and this should only grow with more time getting comfortable. With the receiving yard total so low, I am backing Lockett to record over 28.5 receiving yards for the second consecutive week in a Raiders ‘jersey. For the sake of the article, we will keep it to this, but some of the alternate lines intrigue me as well. Lockett to record 40+ receiving yards at +174 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook particularly stands out.
George Pickens Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
One of the more pleasant surprises on the Cowboys’ roster this season has been the level of production from George Pickens. The prized offseason addition has shown to be one of the true elite wide receivers in football and more than just a WR2 next to CeeDee Lamb. Through the opening nine games, Pickens has pulled in 49 receptions for 764 yards and six touchdowns. There was some level of concern that his output would reduce following Lamb’s return from injury, but there is room for each in the offensive attack. Pickens has seen at least six targets in each of the three games since Lamb returned from injury, including back-to-back games with nine.
Looking at his production overall, Pickens is averaging 84.9 receiving yards per game on the season. He has tallied over 65.5 receiving yards in seven of the nine games. The former Steelers standout has tallied 130+ yards in two games and has had 78+ in four consecutive games entering this matchup. Pickens has at least two catches in every game and is averaging 5.4 receptions on the season.
The Raiders enter this matchup ranked 20th in opponents’ points allowed and with a middle-of-the-pack pass defense. They are 11th in passing yards allowed and 14th in net yards per pass attempt. Perhaps more notably, it has become clear that the only pathway to the Cowboys picking up victories is by putting up high levels of offensive production. Expect Dallas’ offense to keep its foot on the gas throughout this matchup and for Pickens to continue to see plenty of volume of opportunities. The return of Lamb has only created more value in where his prop numbers sit, and I am backing Pickens to record over 65.5 receiving yards for the eighth time this season.
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+155)
The Cowboys enter this matchup ranked third in the league in scoring and have thrown for more yards through the air than any other team in the league. Tight end Jake Ferguson is a huge part of this effort and has especially made his presence felt around the end zone. Across his first nine games, Ferguson has pulled in a team-high 56 receptions for 384 yards and six touchdowns so far this season.
He leads the Cowboys with 14 red-zone targets, which ranks sixth in the entire NFL. Ferguson has pulled in 10 of these receptions and also has six receptions on eight targets inside the 10-yard line. He has failed to reach the end zone in back-to-back games, but scored in four consecutive matchups before that. This is a more favorable matchup for Ferguson as the Raiders have been vulnerable against the pass and play a high rate of zone coverage, where the Cowboys’ tight end thrives. He has three touchdowns against zone coverage already this season, which is the most among tight ends.
Las Vegas has given up seven passing touchdowns over the past three games alone and will be facing the most talented offense they have seen across this stretch. Expect Dallas to have some success putting up points and for Ferguson to be right near the top of the pecking order around the red zone. Based on the volume of opportunities he has seen, take advantage of the +155 odds for another anytime score.
