Alright. Raise your hand if you got burned by Jaylen Warren this past Sunday.
On paper, it all seemed like it was leading to a perfect fantasy storm. While his numbers were far from dominating, Warren entered Week 11 clearly in possession of the Steelers’ No. 1 RB job, having seen double-digit carries and having managed multiple receptions in every single start he’d made in 2025. With the Bengals’ awful defense standing along the opposing sideline — a unit that had surrendered the most FPTS to RBs throughout the season — it appeared that Warren was on the precipice of a massive performance.
Much to the chagrin of Warren owners, that’s not exactly what transpired in Pittsburgh’s 34-12 win.
Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook
Warren’s day certainly started with positive signs, as the veteran RB received a carry on three of the Steelers’ first six offensive snaps. Heck, Warren even did his best Marshawn Lynch impression on the third rushing attempt, a touch which went for 35 hard-earned yards.
Understandably, Warren went to the sideline for a breather after that carry, with Kenneth Gainwell coming in to spell his teammate. Two plays later, Gainwell was crossing the goal line on an 11-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers — a foreboding sign of things to come.
Warren and Pittsburgh’s offense would struggle to get much going the remainder of the first half, and while the 27-year-old would see three quick touches to begin the third quarter, Warren’s day would end after getting banged up with an ankle injury. Warren said postgame that he could have returned to the field, but that the Steelers’ discretion was “being smart.” He also said “there’s a lot of games ahead of us,” so it stands to reason that Warren will be good-to-go for Week 12’s matchup with the Bears, though we’ll have to see if the running back practices on Wednesday.
Kenneth Gainwell Fantasy Outlook
With Warren nursing an injury for a majority of the second half, Gainwell took over and took full advantage of his opportunity. The journeyman would only finish with nine carries for 24 yards, yet Gainwell did most of his damage through the air, hauling in a team-high seven catches for 81 yards. He’d also add a second touchdown, while he tied D.K. Metcalf for the team lead in targets (8). Gainwell’s 63.1% snap share was his highest since all the way back in Week 4’s victory over the Vikings — a game that Warren missed due to a separate injury. To me, that’s the real take-away here when projecting forward.
Simply put, Gainwell’s shown the ability to be a reliable fantasy asset when given the chance. He rushed for 99 yards and a pair of touchdowns on that September evening in Dublin, closing the contest with 134 scrimmage yards on 25 touches. Remember, that was against a Minnesota defense that currently ranks just outside the top 10 in EPA per play. Gainwell’s success in Week 11 wasn’t only due to an amazing matchup — though it definitely helped.
For the season as a whole, Gainwell is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and his 42 targets rank second on the Steelers, trailing only Metcalf.
The Bottom Line
If Jaylen Warren is indeed healthy for Week 12’s tilt versus the Bears, he will surely remain No. 1 on Pittsburgh’s depth chart. However, that doesn’t make him anything close to an RB1 in fantasy. Warren’s only once exceeded 75 rushing yards this season, the same number of times he’s eclipsed the 20 FPTS plateau in a PPR setting. Among running backs to see at least 25% of their team’s snaps this season, Warren sits 40th in FPTS gained per touch (0.80), while Kenneth Gainwell ranks 10th (1.14). All this to say: Gainwell isn’t going anywhere.
Gainwell has seen at least a 37% snap rate in eight of Pittsburgh’s 10 games in 2025. In Week 10 against the Chargers, a contest where the Steelers were losing throughout, Gainwell out-snapped Warren 27-to-24. It’s pretty clear where Arthur Smith prefers his back-up RB and it’s difficult to trust Warren too much if he can be that easily scripted out of a matchup. Consider Warren a FLEX option going forward, but keep an eye on his practice status as the week goes along. If Warren sits in Week 12, Gainwell becomes very interesting in season-long and in DFS.
