The NFC North is a tight race, so this matchup between the Vikings and Bears has major implications. The two division rivals enter with 2024 NFL Draft quarterbacks facing off for the second time.
Chicago is 6-3 and tied with the Lions for the division lead, while Minnesota is 4-5 and in last place.
Minnesota is a three-point favorite and -155 on the moneyline, while Chicago is +130 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 48.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 11 NFL game between the Vikings and Bears.
Vikings vs. Bears Best Prop Bets
J.J. McCarthy over 0.5 interceptions (-150)
After a terrific 2024 season with Sam Darnold under center, the Vikings were ready to move onto their 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy in 2025. McCarthy sat out his first season due to injury, making his debut in Week 1 of 2025.
He lasted just two weeks before suffering another injury that kept him sidelined until Week 9. This Week 11 matchup marks his third consecutive game played and fifth overall this season. It’s an important one as the Vikings are hoping to return to .500.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, McCarthy’s on-field play hasn’t been as promising as the franchise had hoped. He’s completing 53.7% of his passes for 692 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions through four games. He’s thrown at least one interception in each game thus far.
The Bears don’t have an elite defense by many metrics, but they do lead the league in interceptions. Chicago has 13 interceptions this season, which is alarming for McCarthy. He threw one interception in Week 1 against Chicago but otherwise had a solid game in his rookie debut.
Regardless of how efficient McCarthy is in the second matchup, the interception should come at some point.
Justin Jefferson over 73.5 receiving yards (-112)
While I’m not overly confident in McCarthy’s ability to lead the Vikings to victory, he’s got one of the best wide receivers in the league at his disposal. Justin Jefferson is a rare talent that performs at an elite level regardless of who’s throwing him the ball.
He’s played with Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, Carson Wentz, Darnold and McCarthy among others in the past few seasons. Regardless, Jefferson’s performed.
The Bears may have the most interceptions in the league, but they’re allowing the seventh most passing yards and fourth most passing touchdowns. When the unit gets an interception, it’s great. When it doesn’t, it’s not providing much resistance.
Jefferson is coming off two poor showings in Weeks 9 and 10, but he still had nine and 12 targets in those outings.
D’Andre Swift over 58.5 rushing yards (-112)
The Bears drafted Caleb Williams No. 1 overall in 2024 and have two great wide receivers in DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Surely, the team primarily attacks through the air, right?
Wrong. The Bears are much better on the ground with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai leading the backfield. Swift is the starter and still has a good grip on the role, but Monangai’s rookie season has been impressive, notably when filling in for Swift.
Nonetheless, Swift is in line to start again this week. He’s coming off a Week 10 performance in which he rushed for 80 yards on 13 carries. He’s upped his yards per carry average to 4.8 this year, which is his best mark since 2022 with Detroit. Is it a coincidence that Ben Johnson (Bears head coach) was his offensive coordinator that year?
Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, the Vikings allow the third most carries and the 11th most rushing yards to opposing teams. It’s a good matchup for Swift, even if Monangai steals some carries.