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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos prediction, pick for NFL Week 11 on Sunday 11/16/25

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos prediction, pick for NFL Week 11 on Sunday 11/16/25

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

AFC West rivals go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon as the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High.

The Broncos (8-2) are riding an impressive seven-game winning streak that’s catapulted them atop the division. The Chiefs (5-4), meanwhile, have largely returned to form after a slow start to the season, but aim to rebound from a loss to the Buffalo Bills. 

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chiefs enter as 4.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Broncos are listed as +190 underdogs. The game’s total is set at 44.5 points.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Preview

Following their brutal loss in Buffalo, in which Patrick Mahomes was held without a touchdown, the Chiefs took their entire bye week to rest. Kansas City, which had won five of six games before facing the Bills, enters Sunday’s contest recharged and motivated to reclaim its throne atop the AFC West. 

The Chiefs have looked far more complete since the return of Rashee Rice in Week 7, with the star wideout quickly resuming his duties as Mahomes’ primary target. In his first three games of the season, Rice has corralled 20-of-26 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns. 

Kansas City has their work cut out for them against perhaps the most dominant front line in the sport. The Broncos boast a lethal pass rush, leading the league with a whopping 46 sacks — the next closest are Pittsburgh and Seattle with 32. 

Still, even during a seven-game winning streak, Denver has shown some cracks. The Broncos lead the NFL in three-and-outs and penalties, with a ton of too-close-for-comfort wins against mediocre competition — beating the Raiders, Jets, and Giants by three points or less. Quarterback Bo Nix has also had an up-and-down sophomore campaign, pairing 18 touchdowns with eight interceptions and failing to eclipse 175 passing yards in either of his last two games.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Best Bet

The Broncos have had some very impressive wins, and it’s important to note that they haven’t lost at home since last October. Even so, the Chiefs are one of the most battle-tested teams of the modern era — a squad that finds a way to win when push comes to shove. 

As Kansas City aims to rejoin the playoff hunt, count on the well-rested Chiefs to take care of business in a must-win game against their division rival.

Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 Points (-105)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.