The college football season is flying by as we arrive at Week 12. There is another loaded slate with the CFB playoffs rapidly approaching on the horizon. The South Florida Bulls have their hopes of representing the Group of 5 in the bracket and will take on the Navy Midshipmen to continue this pursuit.
These two programs have faced off five times in history. Navy has won three of these matchups, including a 28-7 victory in 2024. South Florida has two wins, including a 44-30 victory in 2023.
Looking at the odds for this year, South Florida enters as a 10-point favorite and holds -380 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Navy holds +300 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 62.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 12 matchup.
South Florida vs. Navy prediction, preview
South Florida Bulls
South Florida has climbed to 24th in the AP Poll and has peaked as high as 18th already this year. They are 7-2 on the season, including 4-1 in conference play, 5-0 when playing at home, but 2-2 when playing on the road. The pair of losses came at the hands of Miami and Memphis. The loss to Memphis was notable, but the Tigers suffered defeat at the hands of Tulane last week to change the equation. The Bulls are 7-2 against the spread, and the over has cashed in six of their nine games.
Byrum Brown headlines the production at the quarterback spot. The senior has completed 64.6% of his pass attempts for 2,203 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions, along with 705 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Keshaun Singleton is the team’s leading receiver with 33 catches for 573 yards and five touchdowns. Jeremiah Koger has five receiving scores of his own, along with 355 yards through the air, while Chas Nimrod has 466 yards and three scores of his own. Nykahi Davenport and Sam Franklin lead the rushing attack with 374+ rushing yards each and nine combined touchdowns.
As a team, South Florida is averaging 42.0 points per game, which is the fifth-best rate in the country. The Bulls are producing 485.2 total yards of offense, including 258.3 passing yards and 226.9 yards on the ground. Defensively, opponents are scoring 24.2 points per game, which ranks 69th, and generating 386.6 yards of offense.
Navy Midshipmen
After going 10-3 last season and peaking at 24th in the AP Poll, Navy is off to a 7-2 start to the year. They are 5-1 in conference play, and 5-0 when playing at home. The Midshipmen are looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses at the hands of North Texas and Notre Dame. Navy is just 2-7 against the spread on the year, with the over cashing in seven of the nine games.
The midshipmen lean on their unique option offense with Blake Horvath at the quarterback spot. Horvath has completed 63.6% of his pass attempts for 1,143 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions, while adding 926 rushing yards and an American Conference-leading 13 rushing scores. Eli Heidenreich is their most dangerous weapon outside of the QB spot with 357 rushing yards, 595 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns already this year. Alex Tecza adds 543 rushing yards and six rushing scores, while Brandon Chatman has added 481 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns.
Don’t let the run-heavy and unique offense be confused for a lack of production. Navy is averaging 32.0 points per game, which ranks 48th in the count, with 439.8 average yards of offense. 304.9 of these yards come through the rushing attack, as do 3.4 rushing scores per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 26.8 points per contest against Navy, which ranks 88th, and tallying 393.6 points per game.
South Florida vs. Navy pick, best bet
It is important to note that Blake Horvath’s status is uncertain for this matchup due to an upper-body injury. He missed the previous loss to Notre Dame, and Navy’s offense hit some expected bumps. Braxton Woodson is serviceable as a backup and has some ability with his legs of his own, but Horvath has been stellar this year in the role Navy demands of him.
Regardless of the quarterback outlook, I am backing South Florida to win and cover the 10-point spread. Navy is a respectable team, but has struggled to fully take care of business with their 2-7 against the spread record as evidence. South Florida is the better team on both sides of the ball and will be playing with a high level of motivation, given the outlook for the CFB playoffs. The Bulls have limited opponents to 139.9 rushing yards per game and are also winning games by an average margin of victory of 17.8 on the year.
The favorite has won in each of Navy’s last 10 games, and the Midshipmen have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games. South Florida has taken a lead into halftime in four of their last five games against conference opponents. If Navy falls behind and cannot control the pace of play on the ground, it will be in serious trouble.
Expect things to play out this way and for Byrum Brown to put forth a strong performance offensively. He is plenty capable with his legs in his own right and can beat Navy at their own game if the game script calls for it. All season, it has felt like the Midshipmen have punched a bit above their weight class, and now reality is starting to hit. Count on South Florida to continue making their case for why they are one of the best teams in college football and pick up a double-digit victory in this Week 12 matchup.
