#15 Miami’s quest for a playoff berth likely means they need to win their next three regular season games. At 7-2, the Hurricanes are very much in play for a trip to the ACC championship in December. Standing in The U’s way is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack aren’t an upper echelon team, but there’s enough talent on this roster to deliver a major upset.
Miami enters this contest as 14.5-point favorites (-110) over NC State, with the over/under set at 55.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Carolin State vs. Miami prediction, preview
A red-hot start, including wins over Notre Dame, Florida, and FSU, had ‘Canes fans riding high. However, losses to SMU and #20 Louisville have cast doubts over The U’s status as College Football Playoff contenders. Quarterback Carson Beck has gone from Heisman candidate to liability in recent weeks. Over his last four outings, the senior has thrown for 981 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. That includes a four-pick disaster against the Cardinals in Week 8.
A good way to limit any potential Beck errors is by running the ball more. However, starting running back Mark Fletcher Jr. missed last week’s contest vs. Syracuse. In his absence, backups Gildrard Pringle Jr. and CharMar Brown combined for 95 rushing yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t bad numbers, but nothing impressive against a subpar Orange defense. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has said he doesn’t expect Fletcher Jr. to return this weekend.
Granted, it doesn’t take much to score on North Carolina State. The Wolfpack are coughing up 424.8 yards per game to opponents, third-worst in the ACC. They’ve surrendered at least 36 points against five of seven Power 4 teams faced this season. A major point of weakness is NC State’s secondary, giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt. That should be advantageous for Beck, if he avoids giving up the ball. The quarterback has enjoyed four different games this year with at least 260 passing yards and two touchdowns.
With that being said, even a shoddy defense doesn’t rule out the Wolfpack. After all, they managed to secure a 46-38 upset of #16 Georgia Tech on November 1st. It all starts in the backfield, with quarterback CJ Bailey and running back Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers. The former has thrown for 2,411 yards and 19 touchdowns, impressive numbers for a sophomore. As for Smothers, he currently leads the ACC with 825 rushing yards, all while racking up seven touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see if NC State can get anything going on the ground this weekend. Miami’s defensive line is formidable, led by future first round pick Rueben Bain Jr.
North Carolina State vs. Miami pick, best bet
NC State’s twelve-point win over Tech was impressive, showing what this offense is capable of at its best. Still, we can’t forget that the Wolfpack suffered a 53-34 defeat to Pitt one week prior. Any team with a soft secondary is tough to trust as an underdog, as they tend to give up points in bunches. A gunslinger such as Beck is more than capable of exploiting lackluster cornerbacks. Even without Fletcher Jr., Miami should come out firing in this must-win matchup.
