Week 11 of the NFL Sunday slate will get started with an overseas matchup between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. This will be the first-ever matchup taking place in Madrid, Spain. It has been a season of disaster for both of these teams.
The Commanders have taken a massive step back from their 12-5 record and NFC championship appearance last year. Jayden Daniels has battled injuries all year, and the aging roster enters this week with a record of just 3-7.
The Dolphins also enter with a 3-7 record. Questions surrounding the future of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and Mike McDaniel as head coach continue to pop to the forefront as the season has worsened. While the season-long goals are out the window for both teams, a strong finish could change the outlook on some major decisions.
The Dolphins enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders are +130 with the game total set at 47.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 11 Commanders vs. Dolphins matchup.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Best Prop Bets
Tua Tagovailoa Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-112)
It has been a nightmare season for Tua Tagovailoa, with his struggles directly tied to the team’s underperformance. The Alabama product is posting a 68.2% completion percentage for 1,952 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and an NFL-worst 13 interceptions. Tagovailoa is averaging just 195.2 passing yards per game, which is his worst since his rookie season.
Luckily, this is an incredibly favorable matchup that Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphins’ roster should be approaching as a get-right spot. Washington ranks 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards given up, 31st in passing yards conceded, and dead last in net yards per pass attempt. Jared Goff carved the Commanders up for 320 passing yards last week, Sam Darnold had 330 passing yards the week prior, Patrick Mahomes had 299 passing yards against them, and Dak Prescott tallied 264 passing yards.
Tagovailoa has not played to the level of any of these quarterbacks on the season, but this is more of a bet on Miami’s ability to scheme offensive success. Washington has given up 25+ points in each of the past five weeks and shown very little ability to get any sort of stop. Even with his struggles, Tagovailoa has thrown for over 233.5 passing yards in three games this year and as many as 315 in a matchup. Miami has enough weapons to capitalize, and Tagovailoa will be looking to solidify his place as the quarterback moving forward.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
The Washington Commanders selected Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the seventh round of the NFL Draft, and he has widely exceeded expectations based on his draft slot. Croskey-Merritt has rushed the ball 105 times for 470 yards and four touchdowns while adding 62 receiving yards on the year. He ranks 13th among running backs in yards after contact and is explosive when he gets to the second level.
This is a favorable matchup against a Dolphins’ defense that ranks 24th in both points and yards allowed. Looking just at their rushing defense, Miami ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in net yards per rush attempt, and is allowing 112.6 rushing yards to opposing running backs. Croskey-Merritt has slowed down a bit as the season progressed. After averaging 6.6 yards per carry in the first five games, he is producing just 3.0 yards per carry over his last five. At least some of this has had to do with the matchups, and Miami will not present as much resistance as has been the case in recent weeks.
While Chris Rodriguez Jr. will play a role in the running game, Croskey-Merritt will be the primary back in the offense. He is averaging 47 rushing yards per game and has tallied over 27.5 rushing yards in seven of the 10 games. Atlanta is the only team to face the Dolphins without registering at least one 50-yard rusher this season. Croskey-Merritt is averaging 10.5 carries per game on the season and has tallied at least nine in each of the past six weeks. He is talented enough to convert a touch into a massive gain, and it should not take him many touches to eclipse this short total.
Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+180)
With Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler and Luke McCaffrey each out due to injury, the Commanders are a bit limited in their number of playmakers. At the top of the list of reliable scoring options for Washington is Deebo Samuel. The former Pro Bowler was traded to the Commanders this offseason and has tallied 396 receiving yards, 49 rushing yards and five total touchdowns.
Miami’s defense ranks 24th in points allowed at 25.6 points per game. It’s given up 17 passing touchdowns on the season. Samuel is a threat both through the air and on the ground.
Samuel found the end zone last week against the Lions, which means he has scored in the past two starts alongside Marcus Mariota. This chemistry, alongside the backup quarterback, has been notable and will come into play in this game. Samuel has been targeted at least five times in each of the past six weeks and has pulled in two of the six touchdowns Mariota has thrown. Count on Washington leaning on its top playmaker at a high rate and for him to be involved as both a pass catcher and rusher.
