This probably isn’t the game that the NFL was expecting when it made out the International Series schedule earlier this year. To be fair, I can see the thought process. Who wouldn’t want to treat Spain to a high-scoring contest with stars like Jayden Daniels, Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin? Just one problem: None of those men are healthy as we enter Week 11. Woof.
But you know what? We’re trying to be positive here. We’re trying to find a reason to get up nice and early on Sunday morning to enjoy some football. So in that spirit, allow me to break down the first touchdown scorer odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for this tilt between three-win teams.
Commanders vs. Dolphins First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
De’Von Achane First Touchdown Scorer (+400)
Look, it’s not the sexiest bet in the world, but the fact of the matter is that only two Dolphins’ skill-position players really touch the ball anymore: De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle (+700). In last week’s surprising 30-13 win over the Bills, Achane finished with 225 scrimmage yards on 28 touches. That total included six receptions on six targets and 22 rushing attempts — Jaylen Wright (+4000) was the only other Miami player to see more than a single carry. For the season as a whole, Achane has registered twice as many red zone rushing attempts (18) as any of his teammates, while Tua Tagovailoa (+8000) is about the least likely quarterback on Earth to vulture a goal line score. On top of that, Achane’s seven red zone targets only trail Waddle by two for the team lead. Yes, you could take a chance on someone like Greg Dulcich (+2000), who has come on as of late in the absence of Darren Waller (pectoral). However, when someone has this much of a monopoly on high-leverage opportunities, it’s difficult to ignore. Don’t get cute. Just back Achane.
Deebo Samuel First Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
Unlike Miami, it’s nearly impossible to figure out who on the Commanders will be getting the ball when it matters most, as Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+1000), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (+1000) and Jeremy McNichols (+2000) are all splitting snaps and carries. Heck, it’s not like Marcus Mariota (+1600) hasn’t been a factor near the goal line, too. With that being the case, I’ll side with the one consistent Washington has had so far this season: Deebo Samuel. Ironically, the veteran wideout has also shown the ability to be a goal line back, but that’s not necessarily what makes Samuel appealing as an early touchdown threat in Week 11. Instead, it’s his usage in the red zone passing attack. For the season as a whole, Samuel’s 38.5% target share inside the 20-yard line is the second-highest mark in the NFL. As such, he’s seen six red zone targets in his last three games combined.
