This week marks the completion of three quarters of the college football regular season. Bowl eligibility and playoff implications are factors as the season winds down, though this is not much of a consideration in the matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and LSU Tigers. Both these programs have been through mid-season head coaching changes and are not nearly to the standard of prestige the programs expect.
Arkansas and LSU have faced off 70 times in their programs’ histories, with the Tigers winning 45 of the matchups — including three straight entering this year. The Arkansas Razorbacks have 23 victories throughout the years with a pair of ties.
Looking at the odds for this year, LSU enters as a 4.5-point favorite and holds -198 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Arkansas holds +164 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 57.5.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 12 matchup.
Arkansas vs. LSU prediction, preview
Arkansas Razorbacks
The Arkansas Razorbacks enter with a 2-7 record on the season, including going 0-5 in SEC play, and enter this week on a seven-game losing streak. After starting the season with victories over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, the Razorbacks have lost seven consecutive games at the hands of Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Mississippi State. They nearly pulled off an upset over Mississippi State last week, but ended up falling 38-35.
Offensively, there is plenty to like regarding Arkansas. They are averaging 35.4 points per game, which ranks 21st in the country, and generating 484.4 total yards of offense. Taylen Green headlines the production at the quarterback spot. The Boise State transfer has completed 62.4% of his pass attempts for 2,372 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while adding 649 rushing yards with six scores. O’Mega Blake, Raylen Sharpe, and Rohan Jones headline the production through the air with 400+ yards each and 11 combined touchdowns. The rushing attack is led by Mike Washington with 828 yards on the ground and six touchdowns scored. Braylen Russell adds 286 yards and five rushing scores of his own. They rank in the top 25 in both passing and rushing yards nationally.
Defensively, that is where the problems are clear for the Razorbacks. They are giving up an average of 33.3 points per game on the season, which is 135th out of the 136 qualifying FBS teams. Opponents are tallying 430.6 total yards of offense against them, including 208.8 on the ground. Arkansas has not held an opponent below 32 points in a game since Arkansas State on September 6th. Offensively, the Razorbacks can run with just about anyone, but they have to play mistake-free football with their defensive shortcomings and have not done this at a reliable enough rate.
LSU Tigers
Spirits aren’t much higher down in Baton Rouge with Brian Kelly already fired and LSU off to a 5-4 start to the season. The Tigers kicked off the season with four straight wins over Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Florida, and Southeastern Louisiana. They have since dropped four of their last five, including three straight at the hands of Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama. LSU is 2-4 in SEC conference play, but is 4-1 when playing at home this year.
The biggest storyline surrounding the Tigers has been the level of play from Garrett Nussmeier. After entering the season as a Heisman hopeful and expected to be in play for the number one pick in the NFL Draft, things have changed quite a bit. He has completed 67.4% of his pass attempts for 1,927 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. It has become increasingly clear that Nussmeier has not been capable of inflicting the necessary damage for the offense to function properly, forcing a change within the roster. LSU elected to bench Nussmeier last week in the 20-9 loss to Alabama. Michael Van Buren Jr. saw his opportunity in his absence and showcased some mobility outside of the pocket. Both quarterbacks are expected to see some time this week.
Cade Durham is the team’s leading running back with 382 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the year. Harlem Berry and Ju’Juan Johnson add two rushing scores of their own. Barion Brown leads LSU in receiving production with 405 yards through the air, while Zavion Thomas and Trey’Dez Green have combined for seven touchdown scores.
As a unit, LSU is averaging 23.9 points per game, which ranks 98th out of the 136 FBS teams. They are averaging 341.8 total yards of offense, with just 101.0 yards coming on the ground. Defensively, the Tigers have had more success. Opponents are scoring just 19.0 points per game, which is the 20th-best rate in the country. They have done an excellent job controlling the line of scrimmage to force long third downs, and the LSU defense has given the team a chance far more frequently than their offense has deserved.
Arkansas vs. LSU pick, best bet
Both teams are 3-6 against the spread on the season and are ready to turn the page to next year. But there is still pressure to perform on both sides of this matchup.
Each of these teams has one competent side of the football and one that has wildly underperformed. Arkansas has put up points at an impressive rate, but failed to get stops at any sort of reliable mark. In contrast, LSU’s defense has done its best to keep them in games, but Nussmeier and the rest of the offense have not pulled their weight. Van Buren Jr. had some nice flashes last week, but is unproven, and quarterback play has not been the lone issue in the offense.
LSU is still the more talented team overall, but 4.5 points is a lot to lay given the context of these two teams. The Tigers have underperformed all year and dropped four of their last five games. Even while Arkansas enters on a seven-game losing streak, five of those games were decided by six points or fewer. Taylen Green possesses a dual-threat ability that will provide a challenge and will elevate this Arkansas offense enough to give the team a chance. If Van Buren makes a mistake, it opens the door for Arkansas to take full control, even if they are posting a -7 turnover margin on the year.
Don’t expect this to be a matchup that lives up to the standard of either program. But there is too much uncertainty for me not to take the points here, and Arkansas should be considered a live underdog considering the quarterback uncertainty at LSU. Expect both sides to be unable to put the other away and for this to be a battle down to the wire. Give me the +4.5 points, and don’t be shocked if Arkansas snaps its losing streak outright.
