There are some great games on the NFL Week 11 slate as the regular season enters its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Vikings -3 Points vs. Bears (-102)
The Vikings are fighting for their lives this week. Minnesota is in one of the best divisions in football and falling away from the pack at 4-5. To remain in the NFC playoff picture, Minnesota needs to get some divisional wins. The Vikings already beat the Bears in Week 1 and would love to make it a clean sweep. Minnesota has faced a gauntlet the past month, facing the Lions, Ravens, Chargers, and Eagles over its past four games. Despite going 1-3 over that stretch, they didn’t play badly, getting a win over the Lions and playing one-score games against the Eagles and Ravens.
Meanwhile, Chicago has had a cupcake schedule as of late. The Bears are 5-1 over their past six games, but those wins came by one point against the Raiders, one against the Commanders, four against the Giants, on a last-minute score against the Bengals, and against the Saints. The one good team they faced was the Ravens, and they lost by 14 points, despite Tyler Huntley starting. The Vikings are one of the best-coached teams in football, with Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. O’Connell should have a great game plan to make life easy on J.J. McCarthy against a bad Chicago defense. This is the perfect spot for Minnesota to get back on track with a win.
Chiefs & Bills Moneyline Parlay (+106)
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and need a win in this spot against the Broncos. They trail Denver by a couple of games in the AFC West, but still have both head-to-head matchups left to make up that ground. Patrick Mahomes has dominated divisional games in his career, with a 36-6 SU record against AFC West teams. He has been even better on the road, with an 18-1 record in divisional away games. The Broncos have won an impressive seven straight games, but among those wins are a two-point win over the Jets, a miracle one-point comeback win over the Giants, a three-point win over the Texans after C.J. Stroud went out with a concussion, and a three-point win over the Raiders. After a bye week, Andy Reid should have a great game plan and get his team a much-needed win.
It has been an up-and-down season for the Bills. After a couple of tough losses before their bye week, Buffalo bounced back strong by trouncing the Panthers on the road. They followed that up with a massive win over the Chiefs, but then looked terrible in a loss to the Dolphins last week. Buffalo needs a bounce-back win here and should get it against the Buccaneers. The way to beat Buffalo is with the run game. The Bills’ defense ranks 30th in EPA/rush and sixth in EPA/dropback. Without Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers have not been able to run the ball well. It will be another week of Baker Mayfield throwing it to a depleted receiver group. The Bills will key in on Emeka Egbuka, and that should be enough to slow Tampa Bay down. Josh Allen should throw all over this Tampa Bay defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/dropback. This is the perfect spot to get back on track for Buffalo.
Six-Point Teaser: Packers -1 & Ravens -1.5
The Packers have failed to win two games in a row for the second time this season. Earlier this season, Green Bay took a bad loss to the Browns and then tied the Cowboys the following week. After that bad two-game stretch, they bounced back with a three-game win streak. They have now lost back-to-back games to the Panthers and Eagles. The defense has played great in both of those games, which is a bright spot for Green Bay. Against Jameis Winston and the Giants, they should get pressure on Winston and force mistakes out of a mistake-prone quarterback. Despite recent struggles, the Packers still rank fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA/dropback. Meanwhile, the Giants rank 22nd in defensive EPA/dropback. Jordan Love should find a groove against this defense and get his team back to winning ways.
The Ravens have won three straight games to get their season fully back on track. Lamar Jackson is playing at a high level, boosting this offense back to its old standards. Meanwhile, the defense is playing much better than it was earlier in the season. It’s always a tough road trip to Cleveland because of the Browns’ defense. However, Dillon Gabriel has not shown the ability to generate any offense whatsoever. When these teams faced off earlier this season, the Ravens won by a resounding score of 41-17. Cleveland should put up a better defensive fight than that at home. However, the Ravens should still get out of Cleveland with a win. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will conjure up enough offense to put more points on the board than Dillon Gabriel and company.
