The Duke Blue Devils host the No. 19 Virginia Cavaliers for a Week 12 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET in Durham, North Carolina.
The Blue Devils are listed as 4.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 59.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this matchup between these two ACC opponents.
Virginia vs. Duke prediction, preview
Virginia Preview
The Cavaliers were having a fairytale season, seeming destined for a trip to the ACC title game. However, the Cinderella run came to an end last week against Wake Forest. Virginia’s season isn’t over, but it is now among five one-loss ACC teams. One of those teams is Duke, making this a massive game that would likely eliminate the loser from CFP contention. UVA quarterback Chandler Morris ended up missing most of the Wake Forest game with a concussion sustained early in that game. Morris is questionable to play in this game, but there is growing optimism that he will be ready to play. It would make a big difference if Morris were healthy, as backup Daniel Kaelin struggled last week. This is a solid Virginia team on both sides of the ball, and in a weak ACC, it still has a shot to win the conference.
Duke Preview
It has been a strange season for Duke. The offense came out of the gates hot with transfer quarterback Darian Mensah lighting the world on fire. However, out-of-conference losses to Illinois and Tulane early in the season put a damper on any high hopes for this season. Then, once ACC play started, Duke rattled off four wins in five games, with the lone loss coming to Georgia Tech. Duke looked to be a real contender for the ACC, but then lost another non-conference game to UConn last week. Based on performance levels, Duke is coming much better prepared to conference games, pushing all of its chips in to try to win the ACC. If Duke wins out, it could make the ACC title game with four losses, an unprecedented scenario in the College Football Playoff era. However, Manny Diaz’s squad is just focused on winning this massive game against Virginia.
Virginia vs. Duke pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is Duke -4.5. Last week, I bet on UConn to cover the 9.5-point spread and win outright as underdogs. The scheduling was such a bizarre choice for Duke, as the game had no impact on its chances of winning the ACC. There was no reason for the Duke players and staff to use considerable time game-planning for UConn when they had a huge matchup against one of the teams tied with them atop the ACC the following week. Duke coaches likely spent most of that week preparing for this Virginia team, not worrying about UConn. Duke should be well-prepared for this matchup.
Darian Mensah has been excellent, ranked fourth in the nation in passing yards. Duke is also ranked 24th in the nation in offensive EPA/dropback. The Blue Devils have more offensive firepower, and this is a much better spot for them, compared to UVA coming down from its first ACC loss of the season. Duke should win this one by at least a touchdown, no matter the circumstances, but if Chandler Morris doesn’t play, it could get hideous for Virginia.
