The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs host the No. 10 Texas Longhorns for a Week 12 matchup on Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET in Athens, Georgia.
The Bulldogs are listed as 6.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 49.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this matchup between these two SEC opponents.
Texas vs. Georgia prediction, preview
Texas Preview
The Longhorns have their season on the line in this game. There is a chance that Texas can get into the College Football Playoff with three losses, but even that would require Texas to beat Texas A&M in its season finale. Texas is coming off a bye week and should have a good game plan to beat Georgia. Arch Manning has finally started to find his groove in recent weeks. Manning threw for at least 328 yards and three touchdowns in both of the past two games before the bye. The biggest issue for this Texas team all season has been the offensive line, as it got dominated by Ohio State and Florida in Texas’ two losses. Steve Sarkisian has implemented more quick throws into the offense to get the ball out of Arch Manning’s hands as fast as possible. That should continue in this game against Georgia.
Georgia Preview
Kirby Smart got the best of Steve Sarkisian twice last season. Georgia beat Texas in the regular season and again in the SEC Championship Game. Gunner Stockton came in for his first serious game action last season in that SEC title game when Carson Beck got injured, and led his team to a victory. Now, Stockton has turned into a great quarterback for Georgia. Last season, and even the start of this season, Stockton was thought of as a run-first quarterback who would be more of a game manager for the Georgia offense. However, over the past few weeks, Stockton has proven that he can make downfield throws and be a serious leader for the Dawgs. Texas has one of the best run defenses in the country, so Stockton will need to be at his best for Georgia in this game.
Texas vs. Georgia pick, best bet
My best bet for this huge matchup is for Texas to cover the first-quarter spread of 2.5 points. Georgia has been one of the worst first-quarter teams in the country this season. Georgia is averaging just six first-quarter points scored per game, ranking 57th in the country. The Bulldogs are also allowing 7.4 first-quarter points per game, ranking 102nd in the country. So, despite an 8-1 record that has it on course to be a highly-seeded College Football Playoff team, Georgia is losing the first quarter by an average of 1.4 PPG. Meanwhile, Texas ranks seventh in the country in first-quarter defense, allowing just 2.2 first-quarter points per game.
Steve Sarkisian often comes up with great offensive scripts for Texas’ first couple of drives. Sarkisian changed up the offense a couple of weeks ago to get more quick throws involved and take the pass protection issues out of play. In each of the last two games, Texas scored a touchdown on its opening drive. After a bye week, Sarkisian should have a great scripted drive to get a touchdown on the board early for Texas. Kirby Smart is an elite in-game adjuster, but his defense has been giving up early scores in almost every game this season. Texas should jump out to an early lead in this game, and at worst, be tied at the end of the first quarter to win this bet.
