Below you can find all my picks for College Football Week 12 with a quick handicap on the game. The article will be updated throughout the week as bets are added. Our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board, so stayed locked in at the website for betting analysis on any college football game you may be interested in.
Alabama -6 (-108): ‘Bama’s seemingly been in a “bad spot” week after week, with bettors expecting the Crimson Tide to eventually hit a flat spot while navigating a schedule of strong SEC competition. It hasn’t happened. After what now looks like an inexplicable loss to FSU in Week 1, ‘Bama has gone on to win eight straight (6-1-1 ATS). Oklahoma is off a big road win as an underdog at Tennessee, and has since had a bye week to prep for the Crimson Tide. That said, the Sooners’ highly touted defense has shown flaws against the elite offenses of the SEC. Ole Miss went for 34 points in an upset win against OU, and Tennessee managed 27. Alabama should be able to score here — prior to the LSU win, the Tide had scored 30-plus points in every home game. The Tide are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in Tuscaloosa this season, where the Sooners should have their hands full. In three SEC home games this season, ‘Bama has held LSU to nine points, Tennessee to 20 and Vandy to 14. I like the Tide to continue to roll.
USC -6.5 (-108): I don’t have much negative to say about the Iowa side in this game. Nobody mucks up a game like the Hawkeyes, as we saw last week when I backed them as a home dog to Oregon. Somehow, it seems Iowa will be bringing some of its weather with it when it travels to Southern California on Saturday, with a rare rain forecast for this one. However, USC is a completely different team at home versus on the road, sitting at 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS at the Coliseum. The Trojans have the fourth-best scoring offense in the country, and are putting up nearly 50 points per game at home — an inflated number that drops to a still impressive 38 PPG at home against conference opponents. While I’m a fan of Iowa, they haven’t traveled in over a month, and surrendered 28 points to Rutgers the only time it faced a capable offense on the road this season. I simply don’t think the Hawkeyes have the firepower to keep up with the Trojans in this one, unless they can generate some scores on defense or special teams.
Note: The weather in Los Angeles is expected to be a downpour with winds, which works against USC here so I’d be more cautious with this game now.
Georgia -6 (-110): Kirby Smart has had Steve Sarkisian’s number since Texas jumped over to the SEC. The Bulldogs won and covered both matchups against the Longhorns last season, priced as underdogs in Austin and the SEC Championship game. Now the Longhorns make their first trip ever between the hedges to play in Athens for a Saturday night primetime showdown. Despite Texas showing some improvement on offense, and Georgia not having as fierce of a defense as we’re accustomed to, I expect the Bulldogs to show up in a big way here. Smart will have something schemed up to confuse Arch Manning and the Longhorns’ offense, and UGA’s offense at home will be one of the toughest tests yet to the Texas defense. The Bulldogs are averaging over 34 points per game this season, and after the Longhorns started the season playing a bunch of grinders, have given up 76 total points over their last two games to Mississippi State and Vandy. Smart is 8-0 at home against Top-10 competition (7-1 ATS), while Sark has really struggled as a dog, going 1-7 during his time at Texas (2-6 ATS). Go Dawgs.
Notre Dame/Pittsburgh OVER 53.5 (-118): These are two of the country’s elite offenses, with the Irish putting up 38.7 PPG and the Panthers scoring 37 PPG — those rank 7th and 11th nationally. Pitt even jumps to 43.4 PPG at home, including 40 PPG over this five-game winning streak since making a quarterback change. This is a really interesting spot in terms of the side. Notre Dame has been playing in must-win games since September in order to make the College Football Playoff, while Pitt is contending in the ACC and has Georgia Tech and Miami on deck. That said, this is still a chance for Pittsburgh to play spoiler and get a monster win for the program. I’m staying away from a side and banking on both offenses showing up for the occasion.
Additional Analysis
I’m close on a few other games, but left them all off my card to this point. If I add any, I’ll update here, but I broke them all down on this week’s CFB episode of DKN Daily Bets.
I’m also likely going to bet the three favorites I did lay the points with in a combination of ways. Combining the three of them in different combinations of moneyline parlays, as well as looking at the double results on each of the games (all of which are priced -110 to -120 range).
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