This is an interesting spot for both Clemson and Louisville, as the ACC continues to keep us scratching our heads. Louisville was firmly in the mix in the conference entering last week, but lost to Cal as an 18.5-point favorite. So the question with the Cardinals becomes this — do they rally around the loss? Or let it deflate their season?
Clemson, despite some shocking losses of their own this season, is never going to just lay down. The Tigers snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday night, taking down FSU relatively easily. Clemson hadn’t covered at home in nine games dating back to last season prior to the win. Now the Tigers go on the road on a Friday night to face a Louisville team that hasn’t covered a home game in its last six tries.
While Clemson has owned this matchup historically, winning eight of nine, Louisville went into Death Valley last season and came out with a convincing 33-21 victory. The Tigers return much of that team, so they’ll have revenge on their minds here. At the same time, Clemson’s defense has been dreadful this season, and Louisville has plenty of potential offensively.
The market has made a couple of key moves on this game throughout the week, with Clemson getting bet from +3.5 to +3 early in the week, and now down to +2.5 as the game approaches. The betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook (available for free on DK Network), are very sharp to the Tigers. As of Friday morning, only 25% of tickets took the points with Clemson, but those wagers make up 58% of the money on the spread.
I initially leaned to a bounce-back from Louisville in this game, but it wasn’t a strong opinion. I respect the market’s opinion on Clemson, but we’re also now through some key numbers. I’ll likely ultimately pass on this one, but with the number now low enough to get a cheap price on the Cardinals just to win outright, my lean would be to Louisville on the moneyline.
CFB Pick: Louisville Moneyline (-130)
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