Prestigious programs are on a collision course this weekend in Tuscaloosa. #4 Alabama has reeled off eight straight wins, including triumphs over Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Another notch on the Tide’s belt won’t be so easy; #11 Oklahoma needs a win to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Sooners possess one of the nation’s best defenses and an elite quarterback in John Mateer.
Alabama enters this contest as six-point favorites (-108) over Oklahoma, with the over/under set at 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Going back to the Nick Saban era, running quarterbacks have posed massive problems for Alabama. That was the case in Week 1, when Florida State and Tommy Castellanos secured a massive upset against the Tide. In theory, Oklahoma should be able to cook up a similar game plan. After all, Mateer has been terrific (for the most part) this season. Through eight games, the junior has thrown for 1,949 yards, ran for 306 more, and notched 14 total touchdowns. The caveat? Since his hand injury in late September, the dual-threat QB has been far less effective. That includes a three-interception disaster during OU’s loss to rival Texas last month.
Fortunately for the Sooners, Mateer doesn’t need to do everything on offense. Running backs Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson have combined for 773 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Wide receiver Isaiah Sategna ranks among the nation’s best with 49 catches and 692 yards. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma has held opponents to an SEC-best 264.2 yards per game. That includes allowing 17 points or less against Michigan, South Carolina, and Auburn.
Unlike in previous years, Alabama’s offense has been somewhat one-dimensional. Running back Jam Miller has battled injuries and inconsistency for most of the season. Still, the Crimson Tide have kept rolling thanks to Heisman candidate Ty Simpson. The quarterback has thrown for 2,461 passing yards and a conference-leading 21 touchdowns while tossing just one interception. He’s accounted for multiple scores in all but one of his nine appearances so far. With that being said, Oklahoma’s secondary has allowed just seven passing touchdowns this season.
Simply put, the Sooners haven’t faced a team nearly as good as Alabama this season. The only comparable opponent, Texas, throttled OU by a score of 23-6. Oklahoma’s chances this weekend depend on the continued progression of Mateer, but this isn’t exactly a get-right spot. The Tide have held their opposition to 303.2 yards of offense on average, third-lowest in the SEC.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama pick, best bet
This is a battle of strength on strength; Oklahoma’s pass defense against Simpson’s elite arm. Three weeks prior, I would have more confidence in OU. However, both Ole Miss and Tennessee have found success through the air against the Sooners this month. Fading an even better offense, and arguably the nation’s best pocket passer, feels far too risky. Mateer’s slow recovery from injury is another cause for concern. Back Bama in this pivotal SEC showdown.
