These are my picks to win every Week 11 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 11 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Patriots over Jets
The Patriots host the Jets on Thursday Night Football in an AFC East battle. After starting the season 1-2, the Patriots have now won seven straight games. Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level, and New England is the favorite to win the AFC East as the Bills struggle. It hasn’t been easy for the Patriots the last two weeks against the Falcons and Bucs. However, they should comfortably win against the Jets. Drake Maye can expose the depleted New York secondary and score enough to get the win.
Packers over Giants
Jameis Winston will be making his first start of the season for the Giants. That does add a different dynamic that the Packers will have to plan for. However, with the depleted offensive weapons available to Winston, it will still be tough for him to score enough to win this one. The Packers have lost two straight games and desperately need this one. The Packers rank fourth in the NFL in EPA/dropback and should move it through the air against the Giants’ secondary.
Ravens over Browns
The Ravens have won three straight games and are starting to look dangerous. Lamar Jackson has this offense playing at a high level again, and the defense is looking much better. It is always tough to play Cleveland on the road, but Dillon Gabriel is inept at quarterback. It could be a lower-scoring game, but the Ravens have too much firepower on offense to lose this one.
Texans over Titans
CJ Stroud should be making his return for the Texans this week. Davis Mills kept this team alive by beating the Jaguars last week. Now the Texans have a chance to get hot and get back into the playoff race. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season, and the Texans should pick up the road win in this spot with Stroud back.
Bills over Buccaneers
The Bills are in need of a bounce-back win after last week’s disappointing loss to the Dolphins. Buffalo has been inconsistent all season, unable to put together a complete performance on a regular basis. However, the Buccaneers are worn down with all of the injuries they have had to deal with this season. Drake Maye looked unstoppable against that defense last week, and Allen should have a similar game against Tampa Bay. That should be enough to get his team the win.
Medium Confidence
Steelers over Bengals
The Steelers lost the first matchup to the Bengals this season. However, after a West Coast trip to forget against the Chargers, they really need to win this one. Pittsburgh has watched its AFC North lead vanish over the last several weeks as the Ravens are storming back. This should be an all-out effort from Pittsburgh to get the win.
Chiefs over Broncos
The Chiefs had a nice bye week after the loss to the Bills. They now need this win over the Broncos to get back into the AFC West race. Denver has survived back-to-back tight games against the Texans and Raiders. The Broncos now face a real offense that is coming off a week of extra preparation. The Chiefs should be able to put up points in this game and force Bo Nix to keep up with them. The Chiefs have the superior firepower offensively and should get the road divisional win.
Cowboys over Raiders
The Raiders have lost three straight games and look like a defeated team. They can’t generate any offense and are not strong enough defensively to lean on that unit. New Cowboy Quinnen Williams should clog up the middle of that defensive line and slow down Ashton Jeanty. This could be a big game for Brock Bowers, but nobody else on the Las Vegas offense is a threat. Dallas had a much-needed bye week to get its offense back on track. If they score like they were earlier this season, Las Vegas will not be able to keep up.
Falcons over the Panthers
The Falcons have lost two incredibly tight games in a row. The team is playing solid but unable to get wins. This is the chance to get back on the winning track against Carolina at home. The Panthers crushed them when they went to Carolina earlier this season and this is the chance for them to get revenge. Bijan Robinson should be able to run against the Panthers and the Atlanta defense should get pressure to disrupt Bryce Young. In a must-win spot for Atlanta, they finally find a way to get one.
Chargers over the Jaguars
The Chargers are riding a three-game winning streak into this one, while the Jaguars are backsliding. After a strong start to the season, some of the Jaguars’ old issues are popping up again. The defense is really struggling and now they are without Travis Hunter for the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence has not been efficient through the air and Jacksonville can’t run the ball. Everything is going wrong for the Jaguars, while the Chargers are looking to stay in the AFC West fight.
Coin-Flip Games
49ers over Cardinals
The 49ers could be getting reinforcements back in the form of Ricky Pearsall and potentially Brock Purdy this week. Even if it’s another week of Mac Jones, the 49ers will have the most healthy offensive weapons that they’ve had all season. They should be able to move it against the Cardinals and score with regularity. Meanwhile, Arizona will now be without Marvin Harrison Jr. for the next few weeks. That makes life harder for Jacoby Brissett as he attempts to keep up with the San Francisco offense.
Rams over Seahawks
The Rams are one of the best teams in football. Seattle has also been fantastic so far this season and this is a pivotal game in the NFC West race. Ultimately, the Rams should find a way to get the win at home in a tight-fought battle. This head-to-head battle with Seattle is the Rams’ chance to finally take control of the division. With all of their offensive firepower, they should be able to win in a shootout against Sam Darnold and Seattle.
Vikings over Bears
This is another tight divisional matchup, this one in the NFC North. The Bears are tied for the divisional lead, while the Vikings need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Minnesota has been shaky offensively with J.J. McCarthy, but this Chicago defense has major issues. McCarthy should feed Justin Jefferson all day and let his star receiver handle business here. The Minnesota defense is well-schooled and will have a good game-plan for Caleb Williams. The Vikings won the first matchup between these two teams earlier this season and should make it a clean sweep in a must-win spot.
Dolphins over Commanders
This is one of the toughest games to predict this season in the NFL. The past four games, the Dolphins have two blowout wins over the Falcons and Bills, but two blowout losses to the Browns and Ravens. When the team gets down, they quit. However, when they find a groove, they can beat anybody. The Commanders have been riddled with injuries this season, including to their quarterback. Marcus Mariota is a veteran backup but this is a tough spot on a team that has had such a disappointing season. This one could truly go either way but the Dolphins have the momentum so I’ll back them to keep it rolling this week.
Eagles over Lions
These are two of the best teams in the NFC and just like the Eagles’ game against the Packers last week, this game should come down to the wire. The deciding factor for me in this game is Jared Goff’s past struggles outdoors late in the season throughout his career. Between the two quarterbacks, Goff is more likely to make the key mistake that costs his team the game. The Eagles just keep finding ways to win and should pick up another one at home this week.
