Week 11 of the NFL season will kick off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots. These two AFC East opponents hold very different outlooks on the season.
The Patriots are shaping up into a legitimate Super Bowl threat and enter with an 8-2 record. They look to have found their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, who has skyrocketed to the second-best odds to win MVP at +275 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He has elevated the team around him, and the defense has done its part to look like a stout unit.
None of this can be said about the Jets, who enter with a 2-7 record on the season in the running for a top NFL Draft selection. Justin Fields has shown very little to earn any belief in being the best long-term quarterback option, so much so that Jets’ owner Woody Johnson has been outspoken against his starting quarterback. New York elected to be sellers at the deadline and traded most of their notable talent, with injuries not helping their outlook either.
But anything can happen in any given week in the NFL as they play the games on the field rather than on paper for a reason.
Looking at the odds for the Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup, the Patriots enter as 12.5-point favorites and hold -900 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jets hold +600 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 43.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Jets vs. Patriots Best Prop Bets
Drake Maye Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards (-115)
The Patriots selected Drake Maye with the third-overall pick in last year’s draft, and he has rapidly shaped into the franchise quarterback they were hoping for. Through the opening 10 games, the North Carolina product has tallied a 71.7% completion percentage and thrown for 2,555 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. This also comes while adding 283 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Maye is set to face a Jets defense that ranks 26th in points allowed and 19th in yards given up.
While this is a great chance to add an impressive stat line to his MVP campaign, the fear of this becoming a blowout has me avoiding most of Maye’s props. One angle I do like is for the Patriots’ star to record a longest pass of over 37.5 yards. Maye throws one of the best deep balls in the league. He will now be facing a Jets team that has had defensive struggles already and traded away most of their premier talents on this side of the ball at the deadline. This includes top CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams, while they will also be without starting CB Azareye’h Thomas due to a concussion.
Through the opening 10 games, Maye has thrown a longest completion over 37.5 yards six times, including in each of the past five weeks. Stefon Diggs has found his stride, while Kayshon Boutte has been a bit of a breakout star this year for New England. The latter has been ruled out for Thursday night, but rookie Kyle Williams housed a catch for a 72-yard touchdown last week and may see additional opportunities as well. The Patriots have been comfortable leaning on the long passing game at a more regular rate in recent weeks, and these chances will be there for the taking in this divisional rivalry matchup. New York has allowed 25 passing plays of 20+ yards on the season, and Maye will be the best quarterback they have faced in several weeks. Count on Maye connecting with his pass catchers for a longest reception over 37.5 yards for the sixth straight week.
Breece Hall Over 2.5 Receptions (+128)
The Justin Fields experience has not been what Jets fans hoped for this season. Through the eight games he has played, the Jets are 2-6, with Fields a clear source of their struggles. He has completed just 63.5% of his pass attempts for 1,143 passing yards, six touchdowns, and an interception this year. The Ohio State product has added 316 rushing yards on the ground, but he has been held to 54 or fewer passing yards in four of the eight games. Garrett Wilson will miss the next few weeks, which only increases the concern for the passing attack.
Almost by default, Breece Hall has become the best playmaker on the roster and New York will look to put the ball in his hands as often as possible. So far this season, Hall has rushed for 664 yards and two scores while adding 220 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air. He has been targeted three or more times in seven of the nine games he has played. The Iowa State product has only pulled in over three receptions in three games this year, but tallied exactly two receptions in four additional games.
Looking at the matchup, New England is especially strong at stopping the run. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards and the fewest rushing touchdowns this year. However, the Patriots are 21st in passing yards allowed and have given up an NFL-leading 71 targets to opposing running backs. This has resulted in 61 receptions to the position. Fields has looked increasingly unwilling to push the ball downfield and will view Hall as a safety valve in the backfield. New England has allowed an opposing running back to pull in over 2.5 receptions in each of the past five games and eight of the 10 games overall. Expect him to see an increase in targets based on the lack of reliable weapons on the Jets’ offense and pull in over 2.5 receptions for the fourth time this season.
Breece Hall to Record 25+ Receiving Yards (+184)
If Hall is going to be leaned on as a pass catcher at this rate, he is due for some level of production with these attempts. Through the opening nine games, Hall is averaging 24.4 receiving yards per game. The standard receiving prop for the Jets’ standout running back is set at 15.5 for this matchup. But I like pushing this number a bit higher and taking advantage of the additional value. Hall is coming off a 42-yard receiving performance last week and has tallied 30+ yards through the air in five of the nine games.
He still possesses his same level of elusiveness whether he catches the ball out of the backfield or on a rushing attempt. Aaron Glenn teased the idea of lining Hall up on the outside as a wide receiver and spoke highly about his ability as a pass catcher out of the backfield this week. The elite Patriots’ rushing defense will only increase the likelihood of getting Hall involved in the passing game. The same goes for the fact that without Garrett Wilson, tight end Mason Taylor will be the team’s leading receiver with 30 catches for 246 yards. Hall is right behind him with 22 catches for 220 yards, while no other pass catcher has more than 15 receptions or 118 receiving yards on the season.
New England allowed eight receptions for 50 yards to Bijan Robinson two weeks ago, while Dylan Sampson, Rachaad White, Tony Pollard, and Alvin Kamara each pulled in at least five receptions from the running back position over the past five weeks. Expect the Jets to make a clear effort to put the ball in their best offensive player’s hands, and for the clearest path to this to be using Hall out of the backfield. Count on Hall recording at least 25 yards through the air for the sixth time this season and take advantage of some excellent value on DraftKings Sportsbook.
