As the UEFA World Cup qualifications draw to a close, every game means a bit more. Group I is nearly decided, with Italy one of the two teams vying for the group win. Moldova hopes to play the spoilers on Thursday, though their hopes of qualifying are long gone.
The odds are stacked in favor of Italy. The Italians are a -1800 favorite to win and +1200 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Moldova is at +3500. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this contest.
Moldova vs. Italy prediction, pick
So far, the first game between Norway and Italy has had a significant impact on the group. That 3-0 victory in the first game of the qualifying stage is all that separates the two teams; both have won all five contests since, putting them in a position to advance. The two will face off in the final game, so the Italians will need a win here to stay in the race for the automatic qualifying spot.
The Moldovans have long been eliminated. With only one draw and five losses, they’ll have to wait for the next tournament cycle to pull a significant upset. But they can still put a shock into the Italians by drawing points from this game.
If they have any chance in this fixture, they have to contain Italy’s lethal striker pairing. Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui have combined for eight goals and six assists in qualifying play. If those two are playing free-flowing football, Moldova doesn’t stand a chance.
Their best hope is an Italian defense that has been leaky at times during this qualifying stage. They had a serious scare against Israel, giving up four goals in a last-minute 5-4 win. If they lose their discipline again, they could let Moldova back into this contest. But I think the Italians come to take care of business and walk away with a comfortable, high-scoring win.
