Let’s quickly recap the Jets’ Week 10 win over the Browns, shall we?
New York scored both of its first-half touchdowns on special teams, with one kick return TD and one punt return TD. The Jets wouldn’t find the end zone again until the start of the fourth quarter, when Breece Hall took a screen pass 42 yards for the go-ahead score. Not only was that the team’s biggest offensive play of the afternoon, but it accounted for 77.8% of Justin Fields’ total passing yardage. Woof.
I guess this is all to say that no one should be shocked by the first touchdown scorer odds for TNF, where only three New York players are listed among the top 12 options, and none of the three have shorter odds than +1000. The Patriots are nearly two-touchdown favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook for a reason — and that reason is the Jets can not move the football.
Let’s break it all down and make some picks.
Jets vs. Patriots First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Justin Fields First Touchdown Scorer (+1000)
This is sort of just the only option for the Jets, right? Process of elimination? I mean, there’s certainly a chance that the offense doesn’t score at all, but it does, it’ll likely be due to the legs of Justin Fields. It definitely won’t be because of his arm. Fields has thrown for fewer than 60 yards in three of his past four starts, with the lone exception coming Week 8 against a historically bad Bengals secondary. As you might expect, it’s a span of time where Fields has also been limited to two total touchdown passes, which is hilariously only one more than his teammate Breece Hall (+1000). That’s the same Breece Hall who didn’t find the end zone in any of New York’s first seven contests of the season, by the way. In fact, Hall has a single carry inside the opponent’s five-yard line through 10 weeks, and he lost four yards on the attempt. Fields is the No. 1 goal line option on this roster. If by some miracle the Jets get close to the end zone early in this tilt, he’ll be given first crack at finding pay dirt.
Mack Hollins First Touchdown Scorer (+1200)
With Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) sidelined on Sunday, Mack Hollins had his biggest role of the season, seeing more snaps (48) than any other Patriots’ wide receiver and translating that into a team-high 10 targets. I would be hesitant to suddenly start calling Hollins WR1 in New England — that’s still Stefon Diggs (+700) — yet the veteran’s elite blocking ability does give him a reason to always be on the field, especially in red zone settings. It’s also not like this is exclusively the result of Boutte’s injury, as Hollins also led the Patriots in targets in Week 8 against the Browns. He appears to be building a solid relationship with Drake Maye (+850), who is currently seventh in the NFL in red zone passing attempts (42). If you’re going to be on good terms with a QB, it certainly helps when its one that’s often dropping back near the end zone. Hollins’ odds are a value at 12/1.
