It’s already Week 11? And we still have no Mike Evans? I have a confession. That puts me in state of deep depression but at least we have a few more sessions. Hopefully I’ve learned more than a few lessons, like positive and negative regression. I reckon though that there’s more in the brain but difficult to ascertain due to repression. But this is my profession. To question and utilize the brain like a weapon, pivoting at the last second calmly like Bruce Willis in Armageddon. I’m not blind like Helen and will try my best to guide you to DK heaven so that you can retire in your personal garden of Eden.
Indianapolis and New Orleans have a bye this week.
We’ve got 11 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, five games have a spread of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Baltimore on the road over Cleveland by 7.5 points. Six games have a total of at least 45 points, with CIN/PIT the highest at 49.5 points. The lowest total is HOU/TEN at 37.5 points. There are six home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,600) – Stafford has been en fuego recently, throwing for four, four and five touchdowns over the last three games. There’s only been one game in which Stafford failed to throw for at least two touchdowns, and that was in Week 6 when the Rams easily won 17-3. Seattle has a potent offense and should be able to apply pressure and keep Stafford aggressive. In addition, the Seattle run defense is one of the best in the league, so the path of least resistance is through the air. Stafford has put up at least 25 FPTS in five of the last six games.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,000), Lamar Jackson ($6,900), Justin Herbert ($6,300)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,900) – Brissett will be making his fifth straight start in lieu of Kyler Murray, and he’s played extremely well, finishing with over 20 FPTS in every contest. Brissett got there in garbage time last week, but whatever, he still got there. He’s thrown at least two touchdowns in every start, and Brissett is a grizzled veteran with the lowest career interception percentage of all time! San Francisco has the lowest pressure rate on defense, and Brock Purdy is returning, which should elevate the offense and keep Brissett aggressive. Brissett also has some rushing equity.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($5,900), Brock Purdy ($5,800), Sam Darnold ($5,700), Joe Flacco ($5,500) if he starts, Aaron Rodgers ($5,400), J.J. McCarthy ($5,200), Jameis Winston ($4,600) if he starts, Davis Mills ($4,500)
Running Back
Stud
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers at New York Giants ($7,800) – Jacobs has been good, not great this season. He does have two games over 30 FPTS, but he’s also put up four sub-20 FPTS games. Another 30-burger is definitely on the menu this week as the Giants have had the worst rush defense this season. The unit has allowed 5.5 yards per carry, the highest EPA per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), Rico Dowdle ($6,800), Rachaad White ($6,200), Jaylen Warren ($6,100)
Value
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers ($4,800) – Allgeier is only playing around 30% of the snaps as Bijan Robinson carries the bulk of the load, but Allgeier has been receiving red zone opportunities all season (22 vs. 25 for Robinson on the season), which culminated with a whopping five to only one for Robinson last week. Carolina has been decent defending the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and the 10th-lowest EPA per carry, but the unit has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns.
Other Options – Kimani Vidal ($5,900), Woody Marks ($5,400), Tyjae Spears ($4,900), Nick Chubb ($4,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks ($8,700) – Nacua garnered double-digit targets in four of the first games of the season. Since then, he’s received three, eight and six targets. He’s suffered some injuries and game script neutralized some of the volume, but he still scored twice over that span. The Rams will likely be throwing, then throwing, then throwing some more in this one, so it’s likely that Nacua gets peppered with targets like the good ol’ days. Nacua has put up over 22 FPTS six times this season with a high of 39 FPTS.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), Rashee Rice ($7,900), Davante Adams ($7,700), Justin Jefferson ($7,500), Drake London ($7,400), Nico Collins ($6,700), Zay Flowers ($6,400), Rome Odunze ($6,200)
Value
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3,800) – Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled out for this one, so Wilson will elevate up the depth chart and become the No. 1 receiver. Tight end Trey McBride will be the top target, though, but Wilson could get close to 10 targets in this one. He received seven last week while Harrison got 12 and McBride ended with 13. Brissett will likely be slinging it around in this one with Purdy returning for the 49ers.
Other Options – Tee Higgins ($6,000), DK Metcalf ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,500), Jauan Jennings ($5,100), Jerry Jeudy ($4,400), Calvin Austin III ($4,000), Luther Burden III ($3,700)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,300) – With no Harrison Jr. for the Cardinals, McBride could get a few more targets than the massive amount he was already getting. On the season, McBride leads the Cardinals with 88 targets. Linebacker Fred Warner was awesome at covering tight ends for San Francisco, but he’s out due to injury. That only makes things easier for Brissett and McBride to do their thing, especially since the 49ers can’t pressure the quarterback.
Other Options – George Kittle ($5,000), Oronde Gadsden II ($4,600), Cade Otton ($4,200), Theo Johnson ($4,100)
Value
Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($3,200/$2,900/$2,700) – It’s a three-headed monster at tight end for Pittsburgh, so all are in play. One of them is going to go off because the Bengals have been the worst team at defending the position. Cincinnati has allowed the most FPTS on average, the fifth-most receptions, the most targets, the second-most yards and the 12 touchdowns to tight ends are the most by a wide margin.
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($4,000), Mark Andrews ($3,500), David Njoku ($3,300), Dawson Knox ($3,300) if Dalton Kincaid is out, Noah Fant ($3,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Texans DST at Tennessee Titans ($3,700) – Titans quarterback Cam Ward has taken 38 sacks, the most in the NFL. He’s also thrown six interceptions and guided the offense to over 20 points only once. The Texans DST has intercepted a pass in each of the last seven games with two games of two and three interceptions. The unit has put up at least 5 FPTS in every game with four double-digit FPTS outings.
Other Options – Ravens DST ($3,800), Packers DST ($3,600)
Value
Chargers DST at Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800) – Trevor Lawrence has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 26 times. Los Angeles has racked up 29 sacks, the fourth-most, and the 11 takeaways are tied for the eighth-most. The unit has three double-digit FPTS games on the season.
Other Options – Vikings DST ($3,000), Rams DST ($2,900)
