Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was one of the NFL’s breakout stars last season, taking 254 touches for 1,514 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns as Tampa Bay won the NFC South for the fifth consecutive season. Irving also became a fan favorite by playing the game with an infectious joy.
This season has been a bigger challenge, though; Irving had a slow first four games before going down with foot and shoulder injuries in that Week 4 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. At the time of his injury, he’d averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and his 19 catches, 193 yards, and two touchdowns as a receiver wasn’t quite enough to make up for the disappointment. He could soon have a chance to get his season back on track, though; according to Fox Sports’ Greg Auman, Irving returned to practice today for the first time since his injury.
Now that he’s back on the field for the walkthrough, it seems like he could be in line to return for the Buccaneers’ Week 11 game on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, though how he responds to practices this week will determine his eventual availability. A healthy Irving would be a huge boon to Tampa Bay’s offense: in his absence, Rachaad White has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry and has been a relative non-factor in the passing game, and though Sean Tucker has been slightly better, he’s never appeared in more than 37.7% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps in his career.
Despite Tucker recording more yards on one fewer carry than White in each of the last two games, I’d still expect him to fall mostly out of the running back rotation if Irving returns. Tucker has negative receiving yards this season, and while White has had by far the lowest receiving success rate of his career, he has a long track record of success as a receiver. None of the three running backs have been efficient with the ball in their hands, so Tampa Bay might as well lean on the two players who can actually present Baker Mayfield with a target.
The Buccaneers won’t rush Irving back into a full load, especially coming off of a lower-body injury, so I’d expect him to split snaps relatively evenly with White if he suits up. Tampa Bay has had a 3-2 record without Irving, so even though White ranks ninth-to-last in the league in rush yards over expectation per attempt, his mediocre play hasn’t significantly hurt the Buccaneers’ chances of winning. Plus, given Tampa Bay’s lack of depth at receiver, it could run plenty of two-RB sets featuring both Irving and White. Both Irving and White have some experience lining up as receivers. White has also been the league’s sixth-best pass blocking running back this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and while that isn’t important for fantasy, it should help keep him on the field and make him a target on late-breaking screen passes.
If one running back does end up getting the bulk of the snaps, he could be fantasy-relevant because of the matchup. This season, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, along with the fifth-most rushing yards, second-most yards per attempt, and the second-most touchdowns. The Bills also rank third-to-last by expected points added and fourth-to-last by PFF’s rush defense grades, and rainy conditions in Orchard Park could incentivize Mayfield not to throw unless Buffalo runs up the score and forces him to. Of the two backs, White could have a slight matchup-specific edge, given that he prefers to run up the left side, which could keep him away from the Bills’ best run defender, Greg Rosseau.
