On Wednesday evening, the Washington Wizards’ tank continues in a tough matchup against the Houston Rockets. With one side in the midst of a rebuild and the other fully in its title-contention window, the disparity between the teams remains large to say the least. Still, anything can happen in #ThisLeague and Washington’s young players have shown some signs of growth already on the season. Where’s the betting value in this matchup?
Here’s a Wizards vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday night’s game.
Wizards vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Washington Wizards
Through the first 11 games, the Wizards are a lovely 1-10 overall with the lone win coming over a depleted Mavericks squad back on October 24. While disappointing for morale in the locker room, the organization’s goals are set on improvement rather than competing for a playoff appearance. One player seemingly taking a leap is Kyshawn George, a second-year win averaging 15.8 PPG, 6.0 REB and 4.1 AST on impressive shooting splits of 51.3% from the field and 45.3% from three. Last year’s No. 2 pick Alex Sarr has also produced a team-high 18.5 PPG and 8.4 REB while flashing his upside as a playmaker and defender with 3.8 AST and 2.5 BLK as well. They’re surely a pair to build around for the future, and this season’s lottery pick Tre Johnson brings additional scoring punch alongside two-way standout Bilal Coulibaly.
The younger pieces are also complemented by veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, though they’re not the stars of this show by any means as they once were with their previous teams. Overall though, the Wizards are 24th in PPG and dead-last in opponent scoring with a league-worst -14.9 NETRTG. The road to success is only just beginning.
Houston Rockets
Out in Houston, the Rockets quickly emerged from their own rebuild over the last couple of seasons with a playoff berth last year. Now, they’re 6-3 as prized acquisition Kevin Durant elevates the team’s ceiling in the early going. He paces scorers with 24.8 PPG on a 49.7%/41.7%/87.3% shooting split with a handful of boards and assists a night. However, the strides of All-Star Alperen Sengun are significant — the Turkish big man averages a career-best 22.8 PPG along with a team-high 9.9 REB and 7.8 AST, and he’s shooting 39.3% from three as well. He’s an early All-NBA candidate, while two-way talents like Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason also play major roles with double-digit scoring totals and ferocious defense.
The Rockets rank third in NETRTG at 9.6, average the third-most PPG, hold opponents to the seventh-fewest points, and dominate the glass with the league’s best REB%. There’s a lot to like about this Houston squad, especially as a threat to contend in a loaded Western Conference. However, the lack of a true playmaking guard may prove problematic in coming weeks, so the Rockets certainly aren’t infallible.
Wizards vs. Rockets pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets are unsurprisingly massive favorites at -16.5 with -1600 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Wizards hold +900 odds to win outright and upset with a game total of 234.5 points.
These odds are very lopsided, and understandably so. Houston’s scoring margin this season sits at +9.7, so this team comfortably covers most spreads in its wins. However, tonight’s line of -16.5 is not the average listing, so as tempting as it may be with Washington’s scoring margin of -15.5, it’s best to avoid that huge spread in this contest. There are other ways to play a potential blowout though such as player props, as well as a team total.
The latter is the pick I’m targeting tonight. As mentioned in the section above, the Rockets are third in PPG with an average of 122.8 and lead all teams in OFFRTG at 121.7. Meanwhile, the Wizards allow a league-worst 121.8 PPG and have an identical DEFRTG that ranks second-to-last in the entire NBA. Without many standout defenders aside from Sarr, Washington will undoubtedly struggle to get stops tonight. Plus, the Rockets are seventh in TS% at 60.7%, so they’re already one of the league’s most efficient teams. Bettors can expect the home side to rack up plenty of points with the starters on the court for the first three quarters and score at will before the gap on the scoreboard gets too wide, and even when the bench comes in, there’s a great chance the Rockets go over their team total of 126.5 points tonight.
