The Flyers host the Oilers tonight at Xfinity Mobile Arena, with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Flyers are +114 home underdogs on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals. Dan Vladar and Stuart Skinner have been named the starting goaltenders.
Below, I’ll provide a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s tilt between the Flyers and Oilers.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Edmonton Oilers prediction, preview
Flyers preview
The Flyers sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with an 8-5-2 record. They’ve won five of their last eight games, while averaging 3.0 goals per game and allowing 2.6 goals per game. The club will give Dan Vladar his 10th start on Wednesday, and the 28-year-old has been stellar between the pipes, posting a 6-3-0 record with a 2.18 GAA and .917 SV%, both of which are career-bests.
Philadelphia has been one of the stronger defensive teams to start the new season, ranking fifth-best in goals against per 60 and fourth-best in PK%. The offensive production has simply been underwhelming, and it is the reason this club hasn’t secured more wins. The Flyers rank fifth-worst in goals per 60 and 21st in Corsi%. Ranking eighth in xGoals% yet ranking inside the bottom five in goals per 60 certainly suggests that positive regression is due for the Flyers, however. The club ranks 15th in PP% but draws the fifth-most penalties per 60, so there should be plenty of quality scoring chances.
Oilers preview
Edmonton is experiencing its usual early-season struggles, going just 4-3-3 in its past 10 games. The Oilers have struggled even more when playing on the road this season, with seven of their losses coming away from home. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are carrying the majority of the production on their shoulders, especially with both Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sidelined. The club will give Stuart Skinner his 13th start of the season. Skinner ranks 45th out of 73 eligible goaltenders in goals saved above expected, to go along with a poor 2.91 GAA and .884 SV%.
The weight is entirely on McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s shoulders, and when they come off the ice, the offensive efficiency drops significantly. Edmonton only ranks 17th in goals per 60 and 22nd in xGoals%. That is uncharacteristic for an Oilers team that deploys two of the best hockey players on the planet on a nightly basis. On the other side of things, the Oilers rank sixth-worst in goals against per 60 and 12th in high-danger chances allowed. Luckily, the special teams have been great, with the club ranking third in PP% and ninth in PK%.
Flyers vs. Oilers pick, best bet
I rarely bet against McDavid, but the man can’t do it all by himself. Edmonton’s goaltending and defense have been underwhelming, and the offense isn’t producing consistently at even strength. This Oilers team feels awfully similar to the Wild, who are loaded with talent but have been held back by poor goaltending and inefficient 5v5 play. Philadelphia has gone 6-3-1 at home this season, while Edmonton has gone 2-5-2 on the road. While the Flyers scare me offensively, they look like the better team on paper, and the absences of Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins will hurt against a strong defensive team. 39% of the handle and 43% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook lie with the Flyers on the Moneyline, and I’ll be joining that group.
