Entering the 2018 NBA Draft, the most intriguing prospect was Luka Dončić, and it seemed plausible that either the Slovenian maestro or Arizona center Deandre Ayton would be drafted first overall. Kentucky’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a talented player but not widely on the radar.
Dončić ended up going third overall and Ayton first, while Gilgeous-Alexander went 11th, but the Canadian won MVP and a title before Dončić and has similar career accolades so far. Ayton has had the least impressive career of the trio.
Tonight, Dončić and Ayton, now on the 8-3 Los Angeles Lakers, will travel to the prairie to take on Gilgeous-Alexander and the 11-1 Oklahoma City Thunder. The game will be televised on ESPN and will begin at 9:30 p.m. ET.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-285 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 230.5. The Lakers are +230 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the possible Western Conference playoff preview and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction
Oklahoma City kept the good times rolling last night, throttling the Golden State Warriors, 126-102. It was far from a perfect Golden State team, as Stephen Curry played just 20 minutes after recovering from an illness, though the lopsided score line certainly didn’t incentivize Steve Kerr to keep him in the game. Still, the Thunder’s performance was truly clinical, as Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 28 points, 11 assists, and three steals in just 28 minutes and Chet Holmgren had 23 points and 11 boards, making all nine of his field goal attempts. Holmgren has made some strides as a finisher in his third season, helping Oklahoma City dominate despite All-NBA Third Teamer Jalen Williams remaining out after wrist surgery.
Los Angeles last played on Monday night in the second game of a five-game road trip, pulling out a 121-111 win over the Charlotte Hornets, which is hardly an impressive result given that Charlotte remains without All-Star point guard LaMelo Ball as he deals with an ankle injury. The Lakers’ wins have been ugly — of the 11 teams with at least seven wins, Los Angeles has the worst net rating. However, it has been clutch: no other team has been undefeated in games separated by five points or less within the last five minutes of the game, and only three other teams have clutch time net ratings better than the Lakers’ plus-38.9. Plus, six players have played at least seven games and averaged at least 30 points per game, and in Dončić and Austin Reaves, Los Angeles has two of them. Of course, it also has LeBron James waiting in the wings as he recovers from sciatica.
Lakers at Thunder pick, best bet
Each team’s Hall of Fame guard is having the best season of his career: Dončić has combined his highest usage rate with his highest true shooting percentage despite converting threes at the second-lowest rate of his career, while Gilgeous-Alexander is enjoying high-water marks in true shooting percentage, win shares per 48 minutes, and box plus/minus. Individually, not much separates the two players, but the Thunder have far more depth to support their star than the Lakers do. Without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, Oklahoma City has still out-scored opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions, while Los Angeles is merely plus-0.3 without Dončić. Lakers coach JJ Redick understands how thin his team is, utilizing his bench less than any other coach in the league.
Arguably the Thunder’s best on-ball defender, Luguentz Dort, will sit as he continues to recover from a trap strain. But regardless of what personnel it hasIon the court, Oklahoma City will always be a threat because of its schemes, which emphasize winning the turnover battle. This season, the Thunder have recorded the second-most steals per game and coughed up the second-fewest turnovers after leading the league in both stats last season. That could pose an issue for Los Angeles; despite leaning heavily into Dončić-centric iso-ball and whipping the third-fewest passes per game, the Lakers rank seventh-to-last in turnovers and have allowed the fourth-most points off of their giveaways. Oklahoma City has made the most of the turnovers they’ve forced, ranking first in points off of turnovers, so taking care of the ball will be key for Los Angeles tonight.
The Thunder’s one true weakness is on the boards: they rank just 13th in rebounding percentage and have allowed the 15th-most rebounds per game this season. While the Lakers have recorded the third-fewest rebounds in part because they lead the league in field goal percentage and have allowed opponents to shoot the seventh-highest percentage, they’ve snagged the chances they have earned at the 11th-highest frequency. Los Angeles will need to control the glass, slow down the pace, and nail its jumpers against Oklahoma City, which has allowed the fewest points in the paint and has held opponents to the second-lowest percentage in the restricted area. The Thunder should seek to get downhill against a Lakers team that has allowed the fourth-highest percentage at the rim.
Oklahoma City has allowed the seventh-highest opponent three-point percentage on the eighth-most attempts this season after allowing a league-low 34.2% in 2024-25. Some of that is a matter of luck — the Thunder have allowed the eighth-highest percentage on wide-open triples after allowing the lowest percentage last season — but they’ve also conceded 20 uncontested attempts per game in each of the past two seasons. The issue is that threes aren’t really part of Los Angeles’ game plan; it has attempted the fewest wide-open threes and the fifth-fewest overall while connecting at a below-average clip. Instead, the Lakers have dominated in the paint, which doesn’t typically lead to success against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder have won six of their last seven games by 14 or more points, and they took a double-digit lead in the other before eventually losing to a Portland Trail Blazers team that posted unsustainable 56-47-100 shooting splits in the second half. Oklahoma City isn’t entirely unbeatable, but Los Angeles hasn’t proven itself capable of beating it. The Lakers can only be clutch if they get the game to clutch time, and they’ve been to inconsistent for me to be confident that’ll happen.
