Central Michigan is hosting Buffalo on Wednesday night of Week 12. The game will take place at 7:00 p.m. ET in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan.
The Chippewas are 1.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 43.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this MAC conference matchup.
Buffalo at Central Michigan prediction, preview
Buffalo Preview
The Buffalo Bulls are one of four teams tied atop the MAC with a 4-1 conference record. Following this game against Central Michigan, they play two of the teams they are tied with, Miami and Ohio. Therefore, Buffalo controls its own path to the MAC title game. This team has had decent quarterback play from Ta’Quan Roberson, and Al-Jay Henderson is a steady back. However, this Buffalo team is built on its defense. The Bulls rank 24th in the nation in defensive success rate. They rank third in the conference in total defense and scoring defense as well. That strong defense, paired with a solid running game, is a recipe for success in this conference. These next three weeks are massive for Buffalo, but the Bulls seem up to the task.
Central Michigan Preview
Central Michigan is still in contention for the MAC title as well, just a game behind the group tied at the top, which includes Buffalo. A win in this spot would propel Central Michigan directly into the race for the conference title. The Chippewas are coming off a bye, so they had 12 days to prepare for this big game. Central Michigan has one of the most unconventional offenses in the country. The team’s leading rusher is the quarterback, who runs a triple option-style offense. Meanwhile, the team has another quarterback who comes in when the Chippewas want to throw the football. Outside of the three service academies, Central Michigan has the second-highest rushing play percentage in the nation.
Buffalo at Central Michigan pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is the under 43.5 points. The Central Michigan offense is unique, but if you can stop the run, you can slow it down. Buffalo ranks 50th in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and 36th in defensive rushing success rate. It should contain Central Michigan and keep it behind the sticks. That will force the Chippewas into obvious passing downs, somewhere they do not want to be. Meanwhile, the Central Michigan defense should be solid as well. It ranks 53rd in the nation in defensive EPA/play, while this Buffalo offense ranks 99th in EPA/play and 109th in success rate. Both defenses have the edge in this matchup. Both teams need a win in this spot, so neither offense will try to force it and make mistakes. This should be a low-scoring, tight game with both teams trusting that they can win it down the stretch with one big drive.
