The Celtics are hosting the Grizzlies on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 230.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Celtics vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
The Celtics and Grizzlies are both playing their second game in two nights Wednesday. On Tuesday, Boston lost to the 76ers 102-100 in Philadelphia, while Memphis was defeated by the Knicks 133-120 in New York.
The Celtics are just 5-7 this season, but they rank 12th in net rating and four of their losses have been by six points or less. With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined, Boston’s main problem this season has been very simple, as the team is struggling to shoot the ball, especially from beyond the arc. The Celtics rank 24th in field-goal percentage (44.4%) and 27th in three-point percentage (32.8%). Despite its struggles, Boston has continued to play its brand of basketball and has been very aggressive from deep, ranking second in three-point attempts per game (44.3).
Tatum being out is obviously significant, but the Celtics’ shooting is going to improve as the season goes on and in games it shoots the ball well, Boston is going to be a challenging team to beat, despite Tatum’s absence. Just last Wednesday night, the Celtics shot 54% from the field vs. the Wizards and as a result, Boston won that game by 29 points. Was this a result of Washington’s poor defense and fast pace? Most likely. But, the Celtics find themselves in another compelling spot tonight vs. the Grizzlies, as Memphis ranks fourth in pace and 21st in defensive rating this season. Especially with this game being in Boston, Jaylen Brown – who is averaging a career-high 27.7 PPG – and company should have no trouble scoring the ball in this matchup.
Not only have the Grizzlies struggled to defend, but they have been even worse offensively, ranking 26th in offensive rating. Overall, Memphis is 4-8 and ranks 24th in net rating. Ja Morant was expected to thrive with a bigger role after the Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane to the Magic this offseason, but it hasn’t been a smooth transition for Morant.
This season, the guard is leading Memphis with 18.9 points and 8.1 assists per game, but Morant is shooting 35% from the field and a pitiful 16% on three-pointers, both of which are easily career-lows. Conversely, Jaren Jackson Jr. is shooting a career-best 51% from the field, but he is only averaging 17.2 PPG after averaging 20+ for two straight seasons. Jackson Jr.’s usage has dropped from 28.1% last season to 22.7% this season, which is a product of Morant being healthy again and dominating the ball. Getting Jackson Jr. more involved would be wise for the Grizzlies, but there is a clear disconnect between Memphis’ players and its coaching staff right now, and expecting this team to figure things out in Boston on the second night of a back-to-back set is unrealistic.
Celtics vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
The Celtics have simply been the better team than the Grizzlies this season and with Boston on its home floor, the club should notch a bounce-back win tonight after losing a nail-biter in Philadelphia last night. Over the last two seasons, the Celtics are 25-6 following a loss, which ranks second only to the Thunder.
However, the Celtics have been poor ATS this season with a 4-8 record and covering this 6.5-point spread could get tricky for Boston with the club playing its second game in two nights. The Celtics -6.5 is a viable bet, but backing this game to go under its 230.5-point total is a better wager, as both Boston and Memphis are 7-5 for the under this season, which ranks top-five in the NBA.
