The Thunder are hosting the Warriors. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 228.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Thunder vs. Warriors preview, prediction
The defending champion Thunder have gotten off to a superb start this season, with a 10-1 record and leading the league in net rating. Oklahoma City’s defense is easily the best-rated unit in the league for the second straight season and its offense ranks sixth in rating. The Thunder have done all this damage despite Jalen Williams (wrist) yet to play this season, and Lu Dort (trap) and Aaron Wiggins (adductor) will be out as well tonight.
While this would be a cause for concern for most teams, Oklahoma City isn’t your normal team, especially on its home floor. The Thunder are an incredible 50-8 at home the last two seasons with a huge 16.2-point margin of victory, which is by far the best in the league. Ranking second during this time is the Cavaliers with a 9.9-point margin of victory.
Oklahoma City is such a deep and well-coached team that it is used to playing without key players virtually every night, whether it be due to injury or for rest purposes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren will continue to lead the way for the Thunder tonight, and ascending second-year guard Ajay Mitchell should have a productive outing. With Dort sidelined for the last three, Mitchell has started and is averaging 20.0 points, 5.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game during this stretch.
The Warriors enter this matchup with a 6-5 record and ranking 11th in net rating this season. Golden State ranks sixth in defensive rating, but its offense has struggled, ranking 20th in rating. The good news for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry will be back tonight after missing three in a row with an illness. It was apparently just a cold for the guard, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Curry handle limited minutes tonight in his return, especially with this being the first leg of a back-to-back set for Golden State.
Curry being back is an obvious boost for the Warriors, as they are 5-3 and scoring 117.6 PPG with him active this season compared to a 1-2 record and 111.3 PPG with him inactive. This is also an appealing spot for Curry, despite the Thunder being the top defense in the league, as Oklahoma City prioritizes protecting the paint over the perimeter. This season, the Thunder are giving up the fewest points in the paint per game (37.3), but the fourth-most made three-pointers per game (14.7). That being said, Curry could be rusty after missing a week and his efforts being enough to defeat the mighty Thunder on their home floor is unlikely.
Thunder vs. Warriors pick, best bet
The Thunder are 10-1 and rank first in net rating despite only playing four games at home this season. As noted above, Oklahoma City is 50-8 at home the last two seasons and not only are the Thunder nearly unbeatable on their home floor, but they are also a league-best 39-12-2 ATS at home during this time.
Oklahoma City should have no issues beating the Warriors tonight and the Thunder are a terrific bet to cover this 7.5-point spread.
