Perhaps more than any team in the league, the Indiana Pacers are a reminder that fortunes can change quickly in the NFL. The Pacers held a lead in the first half of Game 7 of the NBA Finals less than five months ago, but after losing Tyrese Haliburton to a torn Achilles tendon and Myles Turner to the Milwaukee Bucks in free agency, but now, they’re 1-9, tied for second-to-last in the Eastern Conference.
Tonight, they’ll play an inter-conference clash against one of the NBA’s cellar-dwellers, traveling to the Wasatch Mountains for a 9 p.m. ET date with the 3-7 Utah Jazz. It could mark backup point guard T.J. McConnell’s season debut, as the veteran has been listed as questionable with his hamstring strain.
Indiana is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 232.5. The Jazz have +120 odds of pulling off the upset. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer my prediction.
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
The Pacers had an utterly miserable weekend, falling to the Denver Nuggets by 17 points and suffering a humiliating 31-point defeat to the Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors the following night. Basically everything has gone wrong for Indiana this season: it currently has eight players listed on its injury report, including several rotation players with long-term injuries. Andrew Nembhard, slated to be the team’s starting point guard in Haliburton’s absence, has played in only three games because of a shoulder injury and has shot just 29.3% from the field. Pascal Siakam has had impressive counting stats, but the additional responsibility has affected the Cameroonian’s efficiency.
Utah hasn’t fared any better in recent games. The Jazz managed a seven-point defeat against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their return to Salt Lake City, which was a massive improvement after falling by 40 three nights earlier. Before that, Utah had lost four of five games by 10 or more points and only picked up a road win over the Boston Celtics because Boston shot an abysmal 21.1% from beyond the arc. The upside for the Jazz is that third-year pro Keyonte George has enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 22.6 points and 7.1 assists per game as he’s taken over the starting point guard position from Isaiah Collier.
Pacers at Jazz pick, best bet
Utah was respectable for the first five games of the season, but center Walker Kessler suffered a shoulder injury, ending his promising season early. Since then, the Jazz have floundered without their defensive anchor, posting the third-worst net rating in basketball and slumping from the 12th-best offense to the second-worst, ahead of only the Pacers. Without Kessler, Utah has been a below-average rebounding team and has struggled to block anything or force turnovers, allowing the 11th-best field goal percentage on restricted-area tries and the second-highest mark on non-restricted paint shots. Jusuf Nurkić has shot 34.7% from the field and has averaged just 0.6 blocks per game as a starter, and the Jazz have been out-scored by 15.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Utah has also allowed the most wide-open three-point attempts.
The issue is that Indiana isn’t well-suited to take advantage of the Jazz’s weaknesses. This season, the Pacers have converted at a league-low 59.2% from the restricted area and just a 38.1% clip from the non-restricted paint. They have grabbed the most rebounds, but that’s in part because they’ve shot a league-low 39.6% from the field, including the second-lowest three-point percentage. At some point, they’re bound to benefit from some shooting luck, given that Nembhard has converted at a 17.6% rate on wide-open triples and Ben Sheppard has shot 15.6%. Siakam also drained 42.4% of his uncontested triples last season and is at just 34.8% so far in 2025-26. He’s also made just 57.5% of his restricted-area tries this season after being one of the league’s better high-volume finishers last season.
Indiana’s poor shooting luck offensively is mitigated somewhat by its good fortune on defense. This season, opponents have shot the 11th-lowest percentage on wide-open threes against the Pacers despite them allowing the 10th-most unguarded attempts in the league. The scheme hasn’t been great; unlike Utah, which has at least kept opponents from trying shots inside the restricted area even after Kessler’s injury, Indiana has allowed the ninth-most attempts at the rim. The Pacers might be able to get away with it tonight, given that the Jazz have shot the third-worst percentage at the rim despite enjoying solid finishing seasons from both Lauri Markkanen and George, but it’s not a long-term strategy for success.
Tonight could be an ugly watch. Shooting percentages tend to go down in high-altitude Utah — last season, opponents shot 37.0% from deep against the Jazz at all non-Delta Center venues and just 34.7% in Salt Lake City — so both teams’ struggles from deep might persist. Both teams also struggle to force turnovers, as they each rank in the league’s bottom quintile in that stat, although McConnell’s potential return could provide a boon for Indiana. The key for the Pacers will be discipline: they have been the league’s second-most foul-prone team this season, and Utah has drawn the second-most fouls and shot the fifth-best percentage from the free throw line.
These two teams have been among the worst in the league, and their offenses have been especially putrid. It’s hard for me to back either team on defense, but it’s also difficult for me to back either offense. Unless Indiana’s shooting luck dramatically turns around, this one should be a low-scoring affair. Each of the Pacers’ last five games has gone under the total, and four of the Jazz’s last five have.
