The Butterfield Bermuda Championship will be played at Port Royal Golf Club (par 71, 6,828 yards, Bermuda greens) in Southampton, Bermuda. This course has hosted every edition of this event and for this week, there will be 120 players competing and a standard top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
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Thorbjorn Olesen ($10,100)
Olesen has never competed at Port Royal before, but the Dane is on fire right now and should contend in his first start at the tropical par 71. In his last four starts worldwide, Olesen has finished T-14, T-9, T-3 and T-14, in that order. The 35-year-old hasn’t shot over par once during this run and he has shot 66 or better in four of these 12 rounds.
Olesen has gained strokes on approach and with his putter at back-to-back events, and he ranks fourth in strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Also, Olesen ranks second among this field in strokes gained per round at fall events.
Olesen has yet to win on the PGA TOUR, but he has won eight times on the European Tour and three of these victories have come in the months of October or November. Olesen’s long history of competing overseas will have him well-prepared if the wind picks up at Port Royal and he is a great putter, ranking 22nd in SGP on the PGA TOUR this season, which also bodes well for this venue. Of the six winners at Port Royal, five have finished the event top-six in PPR.
Alex Smalley ($8,700)
Coming off the missed cut at the Bank of Utah Championship two weeks ago, Smalley should be low owned this week and this is a great time to buy low on him in GPPs. Before that missed cut, Smalley had finished T-4 at the Baycurrent Classic in his previous start and he gained strokes across the board at Yokohama Country Cub that week.
Smalley’s game clearly isn’t far off with this recent near-win and Port Royal is a perfect place for him to get back on track. Smalley has never finished worse than T-30 in four starts at Port Royal, including a T-12 in 2021 and a T-11 in 2022. The Duke product has shot a 6-under 65 twice at this course and among the players in this field that have teed it up at Port Royal more than once, Smalley ranks sixth in strokes gained per round at the venue.
One of the main reasons for Smalley’s success at Port Royal is his love for competing on Bermuda greens. Smalley ranks fourth in strokes gained per round when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with Bermuda putting surfaces and him being in the mix come Sunday afternoon isn’t out of the question. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Smalley carries the seventh-best odds to win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at +3500, but for DFS, he is only the 14th-most expensive player on the slate.
Jackson Suber ($7,200)
Suber’s game is firing on all cylinders right now. In his last two starts, he has finished T-15 at the Bank of Utah Championship and T-11 at the World Wide Technology Championship last week. Suber gained strokes on approach and with his putter at both these tournaments, and to conclude last week’s World Wide Technology Championship, he shot a 9-under 63 in the final round, which is his lowest score on the PGA TOUR in nearly six months.
Suber has a tendency to play his best golf in weaker fields, with these past two starts being prime examples, and he should have a successful Butterfield Bermuda Championship debut this week, possibly with his third straight top-20 finish.
