It’s not often we see a true rivalry game this early in the college basketball season, particularly on one team’s home court. But that’s the case on Tuesday night when No. 9 Kentucky travels to the KFC Yum! Center to face No. 12 Louisville.
Here’s a college basketball pick for Tuesday’s game between Kentucky and Louisville.
Kentucky vs. Louisville (8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN)
This is a monster game to play in November, as both teams are really still trying to find their footing. Kentucky got off to a slow start against Nicholls in its opener, before finding its stride in the second half. The Wildcats won that one by 26 points, but went on to play a complete game on Friday, defeating Valpo by nearly 50. Louisville has played two blowout wins by even larger margins over SC State and Jackson State.
Needless to say, this will be the first big test for both teams. However, these teams did each host a big scrimmage, and wound up losing at home. Kentucky (with a couple of stars out) lost to Georgetown, while Louisville lost to Kansas. I don’t want to put too much stock in those games, but it’s at least noteworthy that the Cardinal have already lost at home to a lower ranked team.
Louisville has been led by guard Ryan Conwell, who is on his fourth school in as many seasons, but most recently was a star at Xavier. Conwell leads a pretty balanced attack, with Khani Rooths, Mikel Brown, Isaac McNeely and J’Vonne Hadley all playing major roles early in the season.
Otega Oweh and Brandon Garrison highlight the returning talent for Kentucky, and the rotation is filled out with a combination of SEC transfers and budding freshman. Denzel Aberdeen comes over after playing in Florida’s crowded backcourt last season, and Mouhamed Dioubate brings some veteran size over from Alabama. Collin Chandler, Malachi Moreno, Jasper Johnson and Andrija Jelavic are all contributing early as freshman.
The X-factor for the Wildcats is Jaland Lowe — a point guard transfer from Pitt. Lowe averaged 16.8 points, 5.5 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.8 steals for the Panthers last season, but is recovering from a shoulder injury he suffered in October. After sitting the first game of the season, Lowe made his debut for Kentucky on Friday, putting up six points, five assists and two rebounds in 18 minutes. However, he shot just 2-of-7 from the field, so the shoulder still could have been bothering him.Having a veteran point guard to matchup with Conwell would be huge for the Wildcats in this game.
This game opened with Louisville a 2.5-point home favorite, and despite about 75% of the tickets coming in on Kentucky, the number has been moving the other way. While that’s always a cause for concern, I think the number has gotten a bit out of control. KenPom has the Cardinal winning this game by one point, and that’s giving them plenty of credit, as he also has Kentucky currently ranked No. 1. Haslametrics has Kentucky winning the game outright by a little more than two points.
This game reminds me a little bit of Louisville’s first big test last season, when Tennessee came to their building in November. The Vols were laying a questionably short number, and it was one of the “fishy lines” of the season. Tennessee went on to win by 22 points.
This is a bigger game for Pat Kelsey and the Cards to establish themselves, but Kentucky has all the talent to offset Louisville’s desperation. I have to play on the Wildcats getting five points here, and think the moneyline is worth a stab as well.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky +5 (-110)
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