The Bruins host the Maple Leafs tonight at TD Garden in an Atlantic Division clash, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bruins are +114 underdogs on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals. Jeremy Swayman and Anthony Stolarz have been named the starting goaltenders.
Below, I’ll provide a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s tilt between the Bruins and Maple Leafs.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, preview
Bruins preview
Boston enters Tuesday’s tilt having won six straight and seven of its last eight games. The Bruins’ most recent win came against the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Nov. 8 and draw a rematch at home on Tuesday night. Boston is 7-3-0 at home this season but is dealing with multiple injuries to the forward group, most notably Elias Lindholm and Casey Mittelstadt. Morgan Geekie and David Pastrnak have carried the load offensively for Boston, while Jeremy Swayman has shown improvement with three wins across his last three starts.
The Bruins rank 12th in goals per 60 but fifth-to-last in xGoals%, suggesting some negative regression may be coming soon offensively. It has been virtually the same at even strength, too, with the club also ranking 12th in 5v5 goals per 60. While the goaltending has improved over the past two weeks, it was the primary reason for Boston’s seven-game losing streak in October. It was poor enough for the club to still rank inside the top 10 in goals against per 60.
Maple Leafs preview
It has been a disappointing start to the season for the Maple Leafs. They sit in seventh place in the Atlantic Division and 13th in the Eastern Conference with an 8-7-1 record. It is frankly unacceptable to barely be above .500 with the talented roster that Toronto sends out on a nightly basis. The struggles may very well continue on Tuesday night, considering the club is just 1-3-0 and has allowed a league-leading 4.75 GAA when playing on the road. Both Scott Laughton and Chris Tanev have been sidelined, and while they’re depth pieces, Toronto needs some changes as soon as possible.
One thing is clear: Toronto still knows how to score goals, with the club ranking ninth in xGoals% and fifth in goals per 60. The issue is simple; however, the Maple Leafs have a defense and goaltending problem. Anthony Stolarz will draw his 13th start of the season, and he has been flat-out disappointing thus far. Stolarz is 6-5-1 with a 3.35 GAA and .889 SV%––both career-worsts––and he ranks 68 out of 73 goaltenders in goals saved above expected. While it’s great and all to rank top inside the top 10 in goals scored per game, ranking second-to-last in goals allowed per game makes winning games just that much harder. Oh, and the Maple Leafs’ power play prowess has been virtually nonexistent, with the club ranking 26th in PP% and 27th in power play goals scored.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs pick, best bet
When it comes to the betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook, this game is a near even-split. 50% of the handle and 62% of the bets lie with the Bruins on the Moneyline. Interestingly enough, a whopping 75% of the handle lies with the Maple Leafs on the Puck Line at -1.5 and +180. When I started writing this, I initially thought I’d be taking the over on the 6.5 goal total set at +105, but I’m backing the Bruins to continue the strong play at home and extend their winning streak to seven games. Boston scores more and allows fewer goals when playing at home, and Toronto allows a league-leading 4.75 goals per game on the road.
