The Week 10 NFL slate will conclude in a Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. These are two of the biggest threats in the NFC with each team holding Super Bowl aspirations.
Green Bay will look to wash the sour taste of last week’s loss to the Carolina Panthers out of their mouth, which dropped them to 5-2-1 on the season. In contrast, the Eagles are coming off their bye week and enter with a 6-2 record this year.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Packers enter as 1.5-point favorites and hold -112 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Eagles hold -108 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 10 Monday Night Football matchup between the Packers and Eagles.
Packers at Eagles Best Prop Bets
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (+100)
It is rare to see Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown at even value and this is a perfect matchup to capitalize on this. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has five rushing touchdowns so far this season and has posted 14, 15, 13, and 10 rushing scores across the past four seasons. In addition, Saquon Barkley tweaked his groin at the tail end of the previous Eagles’ game. While he had the added rest of the bye week and is expected to be a full go tonight, it would not be a surprise if the Eagles are a bit cautious, and Hurts has been the more prominent goal-line back in plenty of situations anyway.
In addition, there is a narrative aspect to this with Green Bay leading the off-season charge to ban the Tush Push. This effort ultimately fell two votes short, and the play remains legal, which Philadelphia executes at a better rate than any team in the league. You can say plenty about Nick Sirianni as a head coach, but emotions and pettiness are surely a part of this. The Eagles’ head coach will be itching to break out their most effective form of short-yardage offense when the situation presents itself, and this will especially come into play around the goal line. Of Hurts’ five rushing scores this season, three of which have come at the one-yard line.
The Packers have allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season at just 6.6 yards per game, but this is a bit distorted by the quarterbacks they have faced. Green Bay has yet to face a true mobile quarterback this year, with matchups against Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Joe Flacco (twice), Jarod Goff, and Jacoby Brissett. The only true mobile quarterback was Jayden Daniels, but he suffered an injury during the game. Expect Hurts to be a threat to take off from a few yards out and be counted on regularly around the goal line. Count on the Eagles getting the last laugh in the offseason vote and for Hurts to record a rushing touchdown for the sixth time this season.
Jordan Love Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-142)
On the other side of the quarterback matchup, I am backing Jordan Love to be held to under 1.5 passing touchdowns. It has been a turbulent year for the expected Packers’ franchise quarterback, with some regression in his decision-making in recent weeks. Through the opening eight games, he has completed 70.8% of his pass attempts with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. Love is coming off an especially concerning performance last week in which he failed to throw a touchdown and had one interception, while he could have been punished on a few other throws against the Panthers.
Overall, he has been held to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in three of his past four weeks. He will now take on an Eagles’ defense that has allowed just eight passing touchdowns all season, which is the third-best rate in the NFL. They have allowed touchdowns on just 46% of red-zone drives this season.
Part of the reason for the lack of touchdown production has been Josh Jacobs’ workload within the Green Bay offense. He entered the week with the fourth-most touches in the NFL with 10 rushing scores to his name. This will be their primary form of attack near the goal line, especially given that the Eagles rank 27th in rushing touchdowns conceded. The Packers’ offense has not been fully clicking of late and have not had more than seven first-half points in their past three games. With the Eagles’ strong pass defense in mind and the Packers’ preference of leaning on Jacobs, count on Love being held to under 1.5 passing scores tonight.
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
There has not been quite enough attention paid to the stellar season that Dallas Goedert is in the midst of. Through the seven games he has been active, the South Dakota State product has 30 receptions for 289 yards and seven touchdowns. Goedert ranks second on the Eagles in receptions, third in yards, and leads the team in receiving touchdowns. He has scored in all but two games that he has suited up for, with a pair of two-touchdown games under his belt.
This will be especially problematic against a Packers team that has been incredibly vulnerable to opposing tight ends. They have allowed 56 receptions to opposing tight ends this season, the most in the NFL, or seven receptions per game. Trey McBride torched them for 10 receptions for 74 yards and two scores, former Eagle Zach Ertz had six receptions for 64 yards and a score, Jake Ferguson had seven receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown, and Sam LaPorta had six receptions for 79 yards against them already this season.
Goedert falls somewhere in the middle of this tight end mix in terms of talent, but his role within this Eagles offense is clear. He is coming off back-to-back weeks with just three receptions, but had nine catches for 110 yards and two scores before this and is averaging 5.6 targets per game. While I like the +230 odds of an anytime touchdown as well, expect Goedert to be involved in the offense all over the field. Count on him to find some holes in the Green Bay defense and tally over 4.5 receptions in this favorable matchup.
