Few NFL teams boast an offense quite as formidable as the Indianapolis Colts. Week in and week out, this group seems to produce points in both the real world and in fantasy football, but with the best running back in the league, the pass catchers may occasionally lag behind in production. In Week 10, Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs disappointed fantasy managers.
Are they still players you can count on in fantasy football, or was this poor outing a sign of things to come?
Analysis
Heading into the Week 11 bye, the Colts are simply dominating opponents. On a per-game basis, Indianapolis ranks first in points (32.1) and yards (396.0), as well as fourth in passing yards (251.6) and fourth in yards per pass (8.2). The run game helps set up the aerial attack for Daniel Jones, who’s led an excellent unit and tossed 15 touchdowns in the process, tied for seventh-most among all quarterbacks. The Colts also have a positive PROE, so they’re throwing the ball slightly more than game situation may call for. That’s certainly an encouraging sign for fantasy football production in the receiving game, and there’s room for a second option even with Tyler Warren having emerged as a superstar rookie at tight end. Here’s the outlook for both Pittman Jr. and Downs.
Michael Pittman Jr.
If there’s one other pass catcher to feel positive about beyond Warren, Pittman Jr. looks like the name to call upon. Through the first 10 weeks, he slots in as the PPR WR8 with 15.0 FPPG, 10th-best at the position. A six-year veteran, the 6-foot-4 receiver has already tied his career-high in touchdowns with six scores along with 54 catches for 580 yards on 70 targets. Pittman Jr. has eclipsed the 1000-yard mark in multiple seasons and it seems the fantasy community largely forgot he was dealing with a back injury for much of the 2024-25 campaign that significantly impacted his play. Now fully healthy, he’s again running crisp routes and winning contested catches with a team target share of 21.9%, the best of any Indianapolis player.
While Week 10’s line of 3.9 PPR points was a forgettable one, Pittman posted 20+ PPR points in three consecutive games beforehand and has reached 14.9 PPR points in seven of his 10 appearances on the year. He’s seen five or more targets in all but two contests and scored a touchdown in six as well. He works more downfield than any Colt but Alec Pierce with a 21.2% air yard share, so there’s some big-play potential with him beyond the volume, too. While he’s a bit dependent on touchdowns to hit his ceiling, Pittman still profiles as an ever-reliable WR2 as one of the lead options in an exciting, high-scoring offense. There’s no need to hit the panic button whatsoever, though some fantasy managers may be intrigued by the potential to trade for him. If you have him and can acquire a clear upgrade, there’s nothing wrong with moving on.
Josh Downs
On the other side of the argument is Downs, who’s flashed plenty of talent throughout his young career but sees a less stable role than his counterpart. The younger wideout comes in at just 5-foot-9, and while he’s speedy with the ball in his hands, he profiles nearly exclusively as a slot player. Where Pittman runs a route on 92.7% of dropbacks, Downs runs a route on just 67.6%. The lack of opportunities clearly plays a role in his fantasy production of just 9.3 FPPG, good for the WR42 slot in PPR formats. That’s far from a real difference maker in lineups.
Don’t get it twisted — Downs remains a very good wide receiver who excels in his role. However, he’s not as stable a fantasy asset as Pittman since he’s not on the field as often. The third-year pass catcher hit double-digit PPR points in five of his nine games but has just two outings of 15 points or greater. He’s caught 36 balls for 316 yards and three touchdowns on 48 targets, while his target share sits at 16.8%. To seal the deal, Downs averages just 34.3 yards per game, less than half of Pittman’s 73.1. While capable of serving as a FLEX in a pinch, there’s not much reason to feel excited about playing him in lineups any given week.
