The Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers will square off on Sunday Night Football to close down the day of NFL action.
The Steelers sit at the top of the AFC North with a 5-3 record to start the year. Aaron Rodgers has breathed some life into the offense and they control their destiny for the remainder of the season. The Chargers enter with a 6-3 record, in second place in the AFC West, and in the playoff picture as well. Justin Herbert has cooled off from his MVP level start to the year, but the team is still in play for where they want to be.
Looking at the odds of this matchup, the Chargers enter as three-point road favorites, and hold -155 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers hold +130 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Steelers at Chargers Best Prop Bets
Ladd McConkey Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Keenan Allen’s return to the Chargers has brought on plenty of attention, and the veteran has been impressive. But Ladd McConkey is still plenty involved in the offense and posting similar stats. Allen has tallied 50 receptions on 75 targets for 520 passing yards and four touchdowns, while McConkey has 47 receptions on 74 targets for 524 yards and three scores so far this year. However, Allen has just six receptions for 85 yards over the past two weeks, while McConkey has 10 catches for 144 yards across this stretch.
This is a friendly matchup for both pass catchers. The Steelers rank 21st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed overall. Looking just at their pass defense, Pittsburgh is dead last in passing yards allowed and 21st in EPA per pass play.
McConkey has tallied at least six targets and four receptions in each of the past five games. He has recorded over 63.5 receiving yards in three of the past four weeks after only reaching this total once across the first five games. The Georgia product has found his footing in this Chargers’ offense, and it is worth noting McConkey averaged 71.8 yards per game across his rookie season. Expect him to continue his increased role in the offense and record over 63.5 yards through the air in the favorable matchup.
Jaylen Warren Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
While the Chargers have a solid overall defense, they are vulnerable against the run. They rank 17th in rushing yards allowed, 22nd in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 27th in net yards per rush attempt. Opponents are picking up 4.9 yards per carry against them on the season.
Pittsburgh opened up the season with a committee-based approach to its rushing attack, but it has become increasingly clear that Jaylen Warren is the most desirable back. He is playing 59.6% of the offensive snaps and has had at least 11 carries in every game this year. In total, Warren has rushed the ball 99 times for 404 yards for an average of 57.7 rushing yards per game. He broke free for 127 rushing yards against the Bengals and, while the Chargers are not quite as bad defensively, this matchup offers a similar opportunity.
Warren has 45 carries over his past three games and is rushing for 4.1 yards per attempt in these opportunities. Expect Pittsburgh to attempt to control this game by keeping the ball on the ground and for Warren to get plenty of work. Count on this to be one of his best games of the season and for the Oklahoma State product to record over 61.5 rushing yards tonight.
Justin Herbert Anytime Touchdown (+650)
Justin Herbert will still rely on his arm for most of his production, but his anytime touchdown prop line feels wildly mispriced for this matchup. Herbert is coming off his first rushing touchdown of the season last week and has 14 rushing scores in his career. But he has 10 red-zone carries already this season and has rushed for 305 total yards overall.
Pittsburgh has already allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, with Justin Fields the only true mobile QB they have faced. They are also tied for the third-most sacks as a team, with 27 on the season. Los Angeles has struggled to protect Herbert all season with this an even more significant concern following last week’s season-ending injury to fifth overall pick Joe Alt. Expect Herbert to be running for his life in the pocket for stretches of this game, and this to especially come into play in the red zone.
This is a big swing at +650 odds, but expect the Chargers to begin leaning on Herbert’s legs at a greater rate in the red zone moving forward. This has been an issue all season with the team recording just four rushing scores all season, Herbert’s score last week included. Look for the Chargers’ star to have his eyes on the pay dirt in this area of the field and take advantage when the Steelers’ pass rush pushes him out of the pocket.
