Pittsburgh had an impressive win over the Colts in Week 9. The defense was the first team to crack the Colts offensive puzzle, limiting Jonathan Taylor on the ground, taking away the easy reads for Daniel Jones, and forcing a whopping six turnovers. It was a nice bounce-back win after dropping two straight to Green Bay and Cincinnati.
The Steelers offense is mediocre, posting the 18th-best EPA per dropback and 18th-best EPA per carry. At least they are consistent. Aaron Rodgers is completing 68.7% of his passes and has thrown 17 touchdowns with five interceptions. The yards per attempt is 7.0 but the touchdown rate is 7%, above the career mark of 6.1% and highest since 2021. During the last two seasons, Rodgers posted a touchdown rate of 4.8%.
The Chargers defense is 13th in EPA per dropback and has allowed only eight passing touchdowns while intercepting seven. Los Angeles is 15th in pressure rate but the 26 sacks are tied for the fourth-most. The rush defense? Not so good, as the unit is allowing 4.9 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns.
On offense, Los Angeles is 11th in EPA per dropback and Justin Herbert has thrown 18 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Unfortunately, left tackle Joe Alt was lost for the season, which could spell trouble because Pittsburgh is ninth in pressure rate and the 27 sacks are tied for third most. The Steelers secondary, though, hasn’t been so great, causing Pittsburgh to post the 14th-highest EPA per dropback. If, and it’s a big if, the Chargers can neutralize the pressure from the Steelers front, then Herbert could slice and dice. If not, it could be a long night.
Los Angeles is sixth in EPA per carry on offense, but the Chargers have only scored four rushing touchdowns. Pittsburgh is allowing the 14th-highest EPA per carry on defense, but opponents have scored only six times on the ground and averaged 4.2 yards per carry.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (PIT @ LAC)
TE Darnell Washington – Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)
It’s a three-headed monster at tight end for Pittsburgh, but Washington led the way with a 66% snap share, six targets and three red zone looks last week. Things could change this week, but he’s the cheapest out of the three. If there is a huge discrepancy in projected ownership between Washington, Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth, then I will go with the lowest-owned one. There’s only a $400 difference in price between the three.
Steelers DST, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,400)
As mentioned in the intro, the loss of left tackle Alt could be huge for the Chargers, as Pittsburgh pressures the quarterback and is tied for the third-most sacks. The unit has put up double-digit FPTS four times this season.
TE Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,000)
The rookie Gadsden has played at least 75% of the snaps since Week 6. Last week, he garnered a season-high 80% of the snaps. Since Week 6, he’s garnered eight, nine, five and five targets with seven red zone looks. He’s put up double-digit FPTS in all of those contests with a high of 32.4 FPTS. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most FPTS on average to tight ends this season.
