The Packers are the most confounding team in the NFL. There is a plethora of talent on both sides of the ball and Green Bay can beat any team in the league. But the two losses on the season have come against the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers, so Green Bay can also lose to any team in the league. Truly an Any Given Sunday team. That said, Green Bay is 5-2 with that cowardly tie in Week 4.
Green Bay is tops in EPA per dropback. Jordan Love is completing over 70% of his passes and has thrown 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions. He’s been sacked only 11 times. The rushing attack isn’t so tough, posting the 16th-highest EPA per carry with 4.0 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. Green Bay is eighth in yards per game but only 15th in total touchdowns.
On defense, Green Bay is 16th in EPA per dropback, allowing 12 touchdowns and intercepting three passes. The unit is 10th in pressure rate and has racked up 22 sacks. The rush defense has allowed the ninth-lowest EPA per carry, allowing 4.0 yards per carry and only five touchdowns.
Philadelphia has also confounded, as the offense has been uninspiring at best while the defense has been far from dominating. The Eagles are still trying to transition from a Kellen Moore-led offense to one orchestrated by Kevin Patullo. As with Green Bay, Philadelphia has still been successful, entering this contest with a 6-2 record, so it’s been a case of first world problems but chinks in the armor are evident.
Philadelphia is still one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Only Seattle and Buffalo have passed the ball less. Despite the lack of volume, the Eagles are very efficient, posting the 12th-best EPA per dropback with 15 touchdowns to only one interception. On the ground, Philadelphia is fourth in EPA per carry but only nine touchdowns have been scored while averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Saquon Barkley has exceeded 90 yards rushing only once this season while scoring only four touchdowns.
On defense, Philadelphia is 21st in EPA per carry, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. The pass defense is 17th in EPA per dropback, allowing only a 59.6% completion percentage with eight touchdowns while intercepting five. The unit is only 20th in pressure rate and only racked up 16 sacks, the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook has GB -1.5 over PHI with the total at 45.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PHI @ GB)
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($16,500 CP): Hurts has attempted fewer than 30 passes five times this season, yet he’s produced over 20 FPTS five times with a high of 30 FPTS. That’s because he’s been efficient in the passing game, throwing for multiple touchdowns in five of the last six games with a high of four touchdowns last week against the Giants. What makes Hurts special, though, is the rushing prowess, as he’s scored five rushing touchdowns on the season. Granted, four of those came in the first three weeks of the season and he hasn’t exceeded 22 rushing yards in the last four contests, but he’s always a threat on the ground. The floor/ceiling combo of Hurts is the most appealing to me in a contest that likely won’t have many plays due to the propensity of both offenses to play conservatively and want to run the ball.
UTIL Plays
Dallas Goedert ($7,400): Goedert has scored a touchdown in all but two games this season. He’s scored two touchdowns in two contests and finished with double-digit FPTS in all but one game. The volume will likely won’t be robust due to the nature of the Eagles offense, but he does have two games with nine and 11 targets. The return of A.J. Brown isn’t great for Goedert, but he will still be involved and the matchup is a good one, as Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most FPTS on average to tight ends.
Luke Musgrave ($5,400): Philadelphia has been tough against tight ends this season, allowing the third-fewest FPTS to tight ends on average. But Musgrave should see an increase in snaps and targets due to the Tucker Kraft injury.
Christian Watson ($6,200): In his debut two weeks ago, Watson played in 56% of the snaps. Last week, that increased to 66% and he finished second amongst wide receivers in targets and had a long 52 yards. Watson can score from anywhere on the field and he will likely have an opportunity or two to do just that.
Fades
Saquon Barkley ($10,800): I hate fading Barkley because he’s awesome and just put up 36.4 FPTS last week, but we can’t play everyone due to salary cap restrictions. Prior to last week’s outburst, Barkley had not scored more than 18 FPTS and finished with single-digit FPTS three times. In addition, last week’s opponent was the New York Giants with a defense that’s allowed the most EPA per carry with 5.5 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. The Packers defense is one of the better units in the league.
THE OUTCOME
A low-scoring affair with Hurts leading the Eagles to victory.
Final Score: Eagles 20, Packers 17
