A hectic Sunday of Week 10 NFL football will be closed down with a battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers. Aaron Rodgers and company enter with a 5-3 record on the season and sit atop the AFC North. This will be a tough test against the 6-3 Chargers, but the Steelers control their destiny for the remainder of the year.
The Chargers are three-point favorites and hold -162 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers are +136 with the game total set at O/U 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Rodgers prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of tonight’s Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Best Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
When you think of Rodgers, rushing yardage is pretty far down the list of things that come to mind. The 41-year-old is almost exclusively a pocket passer at this stage of his career and was never known for his legs, even in his prime. Across his 21-year career, he has rushed for 3,591 yards and 35 rushing scores, which comes out to an average of 14 rushing yards per game.
But fortune favors the bold, and this is a spot where there is some value for the future Hall of Fame QB. Los Angeles has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks’ legs all season. It has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks for an average of 27.5 yards per game. Rodgers cannot be compared to the likes of Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart, or some of the other quarterbacks that have gashed them. But he surely will not command a spy from the Chargers’ defense, and he remains capable of picking up a handful of yards when the situation presents itself.
Rodgers has 13 carries for 18 yards on the season. He has posted rushing yard totals of -1, 3, 1, 8, 1, 6, 0 and 0, clearing this total in five of the eight games played. He has tallied at least one carry in seven of the eight games and multiple attempts in three matchups. The Chargers’ defense ranks third in the league in passing yards allowed, but 17th in rushing yards conceded, and 27th in net yards per rush attempt. Air yards should be difficult to come by, so Rodgers will need to make something happen on the ground. It takes just one successful carry for this to hit.
Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 Completions (-101)
Focusing back on the production with his arm, the Steelers have found a nice rhythm leaning on Rodgers in the short passing game. He is still capable and willing to take a deep shot to give DK Metcalf a chance at a big play. But his average depth of target is just 4.7 on the season, well below the 6.8 he has averaged throughout his career.
Los Angeles has a strong pass defense that has given up the third fewest passing yards, ranks third in passing touchdowns allowed, 11th in EPA per pass play, and fifth in net yards per pass attempt. Passing production is going to be difficult to come by, so expect Rodgers to combat this by leaning on his short passing attack throughout.
The four-time MVP is posting a 68.7% completion rate and averaging 20.9 completions per game. His usage has been scaled up in recent weeks with Rodgers throwing 30+ pass attempts in each of the past four games, and recording over 22.5 completions in each of the last three. Rodgers has cleared this total in four games overall this season. This is a matchup where the Chargers’ defense should be expected to impose itself, and Rodgers will be forced to find other ways to impact the game. Especially given the Steelers entering as underdogs, the game script may command a pass-oriented comeback. Expect the short passing attack to be involved throughout this matchup and for the former Super Bowl champion to tally over 22.5 completions for the fifth time this year.
