Flyweight contenders square off at the Apex as Matt Schnell takes on TUF winner Joseph Morales in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown.
Schnell looks to build on a decision victory that snapped a three-fight skid, while Morales comes in riding a five-fight win streak — punctuated by a second-round submission in the Season 33 finale of The Ultimate Fighter.
Morales enters as a heavy -380 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Schnell listed as a +300 underdog. The total is set at 1.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday night’s flyweight showdown.
Joseph Morales to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-105)
Schnell (17-9, 1 NC) retired last September after losing three consecutive fights, but returned in April and secured a unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Flick. Nicknamed “Danger,” he is a scrappy counter-striker with strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.
While Schnell, 35, is dangerous off his back — having logged nine submission victories — he prefers to keep fights standing. He’s been vulnerable to takedowns in the past, stuffing just 43% of attempts against him.
That’s far from ideal against an opponent like Morales (14-2), who thrives on his wrestling. The 31-year-old flyweight is in his second stint with the UFC, having been released after dropping to 1-2 in the Octagon in 2018. Following a near three-year layoff, Morales rebuilt his career with a steady winning streak before going on to win Season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter, submitting Alibi Idiris with a second-round triangle choke in the TUF finale at UFC 319 in August.
What he lacks in precision striking, he makes up for with patience and a dominant ground game. Morales averages 1.23 takedowns and 2.87 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with seven of his 14 wins coming by submission.
Eight of Schnell’s nine losses have come by stoppage — including three by submission. With a clear advantage on the mat, Morales seems poised to finish the fight within the distance on Saturday night.
