Prior to the season’s start, the AFC South seemed to belong to the Houston Texans for the third consecutive year. Now 10 weeks into the campaign, the back-to-back division champs are treading water with their postseason hopes already on the line. On Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town looking to further twist the knife and bury their rival even further in the standings… and with a backup quarterback under center for the home team, it may just happen. Can Houston overcome the circumstances to stay afloat?
Read on for a Jaguars vs. Texans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 10 AFC South clash.
Jaguars vs. Texans prediction, preview
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head coach Liam Coen came to Duval with high expectations, but the 5-3 start for his team is arguably even better than the goals set by most fans. The Jaguars haven’t seen the most consistent play from quarterback Trevor Lawrence or alpha wideout Brian Thomas Jr., but they’ve still produced at a respectable level with 338.9 yards and 22.0 points per game. Thomas Jr. and No. 2 pick Travis Hunter are both out this week, but Jacksonville did trade for veteran Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington brings a surprising amount of talent as a slot option. Plus, the run scheme is what truly excels here behind Travis Etienne as the Jags average 123.6 rushing yards, 11th-best in the league. Defensively, the team’s cooled off following a very impressive start and allows 23.0 points and 336.1 yards a game, but that’s largely due to a struggling secondary and league-worst pass rush. Granted, Hunter’s IR placement doesn’t do the DB room any favors against the pass. On the bright side, the Jaguars are third-best against the run and create 1.9 takeaways per game, also third-best of any team.
Houston Texans
Looking toward the Texans, the 3-5 start spells significant trouble. This team was supposed to compete for another division title but instead looks to simply survive as the Jags and Indianapolis Colts lap them in the AFC South race. Houston’s offense already had its fair share of issues with inconsistent play that the averages of 21.0 points and 321.1 yards per game don’t quite convey, but C.J. Stroud’s concussion will sideline him for this crucial Week 10 contest. That leaves Davis Mills at the helm, and while he’s familiar with top targets like Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz, it’s difficult to deny the talent disparity between he and the usual starter. To top it off, a poor offensive line won’t do many favors and the run game is already on the lower end of the league with Nick Chubb and Woody Marks posting just 108.9 yards per game, 21st. However, the defense can absolutely bail the Texans’ offense out with 15.1 points and 267.4 yards allowed per contest, both tops in the NFL. They’re great against both the run and the pass, and the pass rush pressures quarterbacks far more than the 6.27% sack rate indicates while 1.6 turnovers per game ranks fourth league-wide.
Jaguars vs. Texans pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jaguars come into this contest as -1.5 favorites on the road with -115 odds to win on the Moneyline. However, the Texans are just behind as -105 underdogs to win outright at home, so this game feels like a toss-up based on the oddsmakers’ projections. The total sits at 37.5,
In all honesty, this may be an ugly one for both sides. Both offenses are rather inconsistent, although for different reasons. Jacksonville has a great play-caller but will be lacking some of its top-end offensive talent while working with an unpredictable quarterback and simultaneously integrating a new weapon against the league’s best defense… whew, what a mouthful. As for Houston, play-caller Nick Caley hasn’t shown many encouraging signs yet and deploys a backup quarterback behind a shaky-at-best offensive line. Does that set up the under? Perhaps, but someone’s gotta win this game.
The two things the Texans have going for them on Sunday are the presence of Nico Collins, the clear-cut best offensive weapon in the contest who faces one of the league’s worst defenses against the pass, as well as the strength of the defense. Even if the offense can’t produce a ton of points, Trevor Lawrence will likely be forced to run for his life and make quick decisions as the pass rush approaches, and the Houston secondary will punish him if he makes the wrong choice. That unit is enough to keep the Texans in nearly any game even when the offense sputters, so it may not take all that much for the home team to survive another week… yes, even with Mills in the game. Expect plenty of target volume for Collins as Houston’s offense produces just enough to scrape by as the elite defense secures the week.
