At 6-2, TCU’s chances of winning the Big 12 are still alive. If the Horned Frogs want to earn a title game appearance, they’ll likely need to win out. That means taking care of business this weekend against Iowa State. Can the Cyclones bounce back following last week’s disappointing loss to Arizona State?
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 11’s game between the Iowa State Cyclones and TCU Horned Frogs.
TCU enters this contest as 7.5-point favorites (-108) over Iowa State, with the over/under set at 57.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Horned Frogs are favored at -285 on the moneyline.
Iowa State vs. TCU prediction, preview
It was a nightmare in Ames last weekend, as the Cyclones dropped a must-win game vs. ASU. Backup quarterback Jeff Sims threw for 177 yards and ran for 228 (!), leading the Sun Devils to a 24-19 victory. For those who have followed ISU, it wasn’t the most shocking result. The team’s defense has allowed 4.63 rushing yards per attempt, third-worst in the Big 12.
With that being said, TCU might not be the best team to take advantage of Iowa State’s defense. The Horned Frogs are gaining a conference-worst 124.0 rushing yards per game on the ground. Running backs Kevorian Barnes and Trent Battle have combined for 743 yards and eight touchdowns. During four of the team’s five in-conference matchups, TCU has gained less than 100 rushing yards.
If the Horned Frogs are going to win this game, it’ll likely be up to Josh Hoover. The quarterback has been terrific this season throwing for 2,371 yards and 22 touchdowns while coughing up six interceptions. However, the junior isn’t much of a scrambler, gaining four total yards on the ground. That should be a major relief for Iowa State, who struggled to contain Sims. Still, it’s not as if ISU’s secondary has been great. The Cyclones have given up 7.0 yards per pass attempt, fifth-worst in the Big 12.
Iowa State could find itself in need of points. That’ll place extra responsibility on Rocco Becht. Following a terrific sophomore year, the quarterback has struggled this season. Through nine games, he’s recorded 2,119 passing yards and 11 touchdowns while surrendering a conference-worst seven interceptions. TCU’s defense has snagged nine picks in eight games so far.
Iowa State vs. TCU pick, best bet
The Cyclones have dropped four straight, raising doubts about the direction of the program. However, three of those contests were one-score games. The defense’s difficulty stopping the run may not play a major factor tonight, as TCU doesn’t do much on the ground. A better performance for Becht is all Iowa State will need to stay competitive.
